Through Both Lenses: Cubs Notes And Why Samardzija Might Be Good

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52

I love the very beginning of baseball season for a multitude of reasons. Small sample sizes make for fun numbers, like guys with OBP’s lower than their AVG’s, players with more home runs than entire teams, guys who haven’t walked or struck out all year, the dudes that are on pace for 300 RBI’s, it’s great for nonsensical stuff like that. It’s also fun for identifying who actually watches baseball vs. who is a football fan and is just killing time complaining about things that don’t matter. To be clear for all you football fans, the MLB season is a 6  month (7 if your team is good) long odyssey that begins as nature wakes up from it’s slumber, thrives as the world around it gets greener and warmer, and finishes when the outside world dies. It’s cyclical, natural, and takes a long fucking time to complete. They play 162 games in a season. Some teams are gunning to win this year, some teams are caught in the middle of rebuilding and competing, and others are instituting a plan that revolves around youth and smart spending.

I’m talking to my fellow Cub fans. Yes, yes, Theo was hired this year, but as some ignorant White Sox fans are quick to remind me, he doesn’t play a position (BTW, White Sox fans, I’m aware of this. He doesn’t swing a bat nor throw a ball for the Chicago Cubs. I don’t need to be reminded of this). The team this year is awful. They told you they were going to be awful all off-season. They made no major moves, they acquired no impact talent, they did not change anything from last years squad that was also awful, really. So why are you so surprised about their struggles? Is it hard to watch? Yeah, nobody likes blown leads or bad fielding or an anemic offense.

“DEN WHAT DA FUCK AM I GONNA WATCH FOR TREE FUCKING MONTS UNTIL DA FOOTBALL COMES BACK AND DA MIDWAY MONSTERS OF HALAS HALL COME CRASHING BACK WIT DA VENGEANCE OF A TOUSAND MINI DITKAS?!?!?!?!?!”

I have no idea. I can’t help you.

“Good sir, if I may inquire, what shall I remain vigilant for this season on the North Side?”

Soccer, go back to Europe. Try again.

“Dude, they suck, is there anything that I can look for as a reasonable Cubs fan with realistic expectations for this year and the next three years?”

On the Major League roster there are a few players you should be watching for a myriad of reasons. I’ll be doing my best to update you guys on them as the season drags on, but for now, here’s my list.

1. Starlin Castro – Nobody makes me say “That’s a great play,” and “That’s a dumbass play,” in the same game quite like Starlin.
2. Marlon Byrd – If he manages to get his average up he will be a valuable piece to a team that’s in contention. Players with solid contact skills and good defense don’t fall out of trees these days. Could bring back an ok haul of prospects if a team decides to buy high at the deadline.
3. Matt Garza – The goal is to either extend him because of the thin crop of FA starters in the coming years, or to bring back a better haul than you gave up to acquire him. I still think he ends up a Tiger.
4. Darwin Barney – It’s debatable, but I think he might be on the Cubs the next time they are ready to compete. TheoCo (thanks Short-E) values defense a lot, and I think his bat might stick as a 2-hitter.
5. Bryan LaHair – If his bat is legit, he can play in left and then you can have a 3-4 of Rizzo and LaHair. That’s awesome to think about.

Which brings us to who I think is the most intriguing Cub, Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs did the right thing and stuck Shark (Jeff’s rather unfortunate nickname) in the rotation. He had some interesting gains last year as a reliever, but if he was going to be worth anything to the organization, it was going to be in the rotation. As I stated before, I love small sample sizes, they’re fun, and when we talk about Shark’s numbers it’s in the tiniest of sample sizes, but dating back to last year he’s gained something valuable; the ability to miss bats.

See, dating back to his minor league days, Shark was always a bit of a mystery. He had good-great stuff, and a 98 MPH heater, but he never consistently posted legit prospect K/9 numbers.

His fastball was described as fast and straight, which is an issue. Major League hitters will time up fast if it’s straight, just ask Armando Benitez. Since 2011 however, his K rate jumped to 8+ and it looks like it’ll stay there. Begs the question, what’s different?

Well, this year he’s walking less people. His BB/9 rate is dramatically slashed so far this year, but we’ll get to that in a moment. The difference is that his stuff is just, better. Let’s look at his PitchF/X data for a second.

PitchFx tracks the movement and speed of pitches thrown. In this case it’s illustrating Shark’s improved movement on all of his pitches. SL=Slider, CH=Changeup, and FT=Two Seamer, something that is a relatively new classification and can be misleading. Before ’11, Shark’s slider wasn’t moving across the plate much, it was simply spinning and dropping with gravity. In 2011 however, that pitch improved, and it’s clear when you watch him. I don’t know for a fact if he improved his grip on the slider or if he just has a better feel for it, but it’s a real pitch now. It’s become a wipeout pitch. The Changeup has also greatly improved, even if he limited his use of it in 2011. This year it has legitimate drop  to it and it looks like it comes out of the same slot, with similar arm action, as his fastball. The Two-Seamer is a bit of a mystery, PitchFx did mis-classify this pitch as a regular fastball until around 2010, but it has live action and is a few ticks slower than his 4 seamer. All of his pitches have good movement on them, with his two fastballs being his best pitches. The slider is now a legit weapon and the changeup is coming along. That alone explains the uptick in strikeouts, but there’s also one more trend that appeared during spring training and has some people (myself included) optimistic about his future as a starter.

He’s walking less people.

Let’s go back to his Baseball Reference card

During Spring Training Shark walked 1 batter and struck out 16 in 20 innings of work. Spring Training stats are misleading sometimes, but I don’t think they were with Samardzija this year. His command has dramatically improved this year in limited innings. To properly illustrate that:

That’s shark in a nutshell. Drop in ERA, rise in K/9, cliff dive in BB/9 and a rocket trip in K/BB ratio.

Conclusion

He’ll probably have some missteps over the course of a long season, but the improved control and the improvement on the movement of his pitches are all reasons to be optimistic. Shark’s change in approach will raise his ceiling, the questions for the remainder of the year revolve around the durability of his arm, I think. Can he throw 150+ innings? Can he retain the gains he’s made in control? Can he be a dependable starter? I don’t know for sure, but I’m finally optimistic about Samardzija.

Through Both Lenses: #42, Minnie, and Afro Latinos in Baseball

“People see dark faces out there, and the perception is that they’re African American. They’re not us. They’re impostors”

-Torii Hunter

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52 

Note: This article is the start of something, the history of the Afro-Latino in baseball cannot be summed up in one blog post or even a series of blog posts. It began as a simple email response and it has grown into an ongoing project whose end date I’m not sure of. This is a snippet.

It’s pretty clear that people just don’t know what to do with Latinos. In the Trayvon Martin case Zimmerman was labeled a minority by some because he has Spanish roots, thus making him Mexican or something. The Ozzie Guillen story provided an interesting chance for Latinos to have a serious conversation about race and hate within the community, instead we got an overreaction to the suspension with no real discussion on why what he said stung so much. One of the more surprising aspects of this controversy was the lack of cultural awareness when it comes to Hispanics. People genuinely did not know that Castro is seen as a tyrannical despot on the level of Hitler with the Cuban community. The caricature was the only impression people had of him and were shocked that Ozzie’s comments cut so deep.

The inspiration from this commentary, however, came from a nugget of information that Dan Bernstein gave us 2 weeks ago. The Chicago Cubs are currently shopping most of their big league roster, and it’s been speculated for months that Marlon Byrd will be traded. Should he find a new home between now and April 15, Jackie Robinson day, Chicago will have no African-American representative on #42’s day. That is a rather interesting piece of information, and I don’t have much issue with it. A caller brought up the name Alex Rios, who was born in Alabama and is considered Puerto-Rican-American.

And that’s what really got me thinking about what Jackie Robinson day means. For the purposes of his point, I can somewhat see where Mr. Bernstein was coming from, he dismissed Rios as a Latin born player and not African American in the typical sense of the term. However, I think this is a classic example of the media, and the world in general, having no idea what to do with Afro-Latinos. Torii Hunter’s quote above illustrates that point as well. Afro-Latinos are not properly represented nor are they accounted for in America.

The implication that Mr. Bernstein was making is that Afro-Latinos shouldn’t count as proper representatives for Jackie Robinson Day. That’s a dangerous implication to make and I think it’s one that a lot of people make. The inverse of this is also dangerous however, to consider Alex Rios as simply black without considering what his heritage and his lineage is. The point of Jackie Robinson day is to celebrate the tearing down of the color barrier. That’s a broad term, color, and it’s one that’s classically been assigned to African-Americans throughout history, with a good reason. It was the label that an oppressive white society put on blacks to strip away their sense of worth. But color is a defined differently today as it applies to a broader population.

The truth is that the gentleman’s agreement about “colored” players extended beyond just the African-American players. If you sent Alfonso Soriano, Starlin Castro, Marlon Byrd, Alex Rios, Carlos Marmol, Dayan Viciedo, Alexei Ramirez, Hector Santiago, and even Geo Soto back into a time machine set for the 30’s, not a one is playing in the Majors. They would all be New York Cubans.

The history of the New York Cubans is muddled, which is common for a Negro League team. For the purposes of this column, understand that they were a Negro League team comprised of mostly Afro-Latinos, but occasionally they took on lighter skinned Latinos because MLB didn’t want anything to do with people of color. They began in 1899 as the All Cubans, became the Cuban Stars in 1907, folded in the late 20’s and were recreated by a former member of the Cuban Stars, Alex Pompez, in 1930. If that name rings a bell White Sox fans, it’s because he scouted Minnie Minoso and brought him over from Cuba to play ball in the US.

The New York Cubans employed players of color that were not allowed to play in the Majors. These were not strictly African American players that fit neatly into a small category. The NY Cubans took on all that were of color and shunned by MLB, until Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier and opened the door to all people of color, not just American born Blacks. The Negro Leagues were where Minnie Minoso got his start in professional baseball.

On April 15, 1947, Jackie Robinson was 0/3 with a RS, but on that day he began the process that cemented himself as arguably the most important player in baseball history. In the wake of integration  we had Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Don Newcombe, and Minnie Minoso. That’s a lot of talent that MLB was ignoring before Jackie. A date that should be similarly remembered is May 1, 1951.

The “Cuban Comet” paved the way for Latino players, but is remembered by the White Sox as being their first black player in the post Jackie Robinson era. On May 1, Minnie paved the way for Latino players to enter the Majors, which of course came at the price of discrimination, racism, and untold stress and heartache. Reporters rather famously phonetically spelled his quotes in print, he was called all sorts of names everywhere he went, and he had to use the “Coloreds Only” stalls as well.

It’s irresponsible to dismiss Afro Latinos because they aren’t the “right kind of black.” I think it’s about time to have a serious discussion about race in America, one that centers around Hispanics. The race issue is alive and well in America, it’s disguised as other things and somewhat hidden, but we Hispanics have a lot of issues to resolve with ourselves. There’s an alarming trend of self hate and lost identity within our community. Ozzie’s insensitive comments confront us with an uncomfortable reality that we aren’t as unified as we’d like to think sometimes. I’m guilty of talking shit to Puerto Ricans, and I’m sure most Hispanics have similar stories. We’ve come a long way since Minnie, but we still have a long way to go. Our story is frequently misunderstood in America, let’s work on that.

Through Both Lenses: Your Big Ass Cubs Depth Chart Pt. 2

This right here is pt. 2 of the Chicago Cubs names to watch for series I’m doing. OF is slightly less scary than the IF, the one true prospect does live out here in Brett Jackson. The names aren’t as raw and there are some legit Major League contributors in the bunch, but some of these guys should be gone by July.

-Mauricio Rubio Jr.
Follow me on twitter, @MRubio52 

Outfield

Right Field. David DeJesus – His wife is pretty hot, and she’s a big Cubs fan. As for David, he’s an ok option in Right. His slash line will look a lot like Fukudome’s but it’ll come without the extreme salary and latent racism that Cubs fans seemed to start. He’s a guy that doesn’t do anything a lot, if that makes any sense. He doesn’t walk a lot, he doesn’t strike out a lot either. He doesn’t drive in a lot of runs, nor does he score a lot of runs. He’s above average in most categories, but his slugging percentage is low for a corner outfielder. He’s a solid signing, cheap and mildly effective. He’s not a difference maker, but he is a decent stopgap.

Center Field. Marlon Byrd –  It will be a bit painful to see him go, as he should at some point this year. Byrd is a hustle player with tangible talent. He was at his peak value in 2010 and since then has slid into “decent player” territory, which is fine for a contender, but it really isn’t what the Cubs need at this point. Byrd has always been solid but unspectacular throughout his career. He can help out a team for a stretch playoff run, he does well against both righties and lefties and plays a decent Center, but he’s not going to be a massive difference maker over an extended period of time. The projected haul he brings back should reflect that.

Left Field. Alfonso Soriano – His contract is an albatross and his production has been slipping ever since he put on the uniform, but Alfonso Soriano does get his fair share of unfounded criticism. Let’s be clear about this, Sori was never the player that the Cubs paid for in 2007, he wasn’t a stolen base machine and he couldn’t play Center under any circumstances. Hendry wildly overpaid for Sori hoping that an eventual championship would relegate his later years with the team as a victory lap instead of a painful slow death. Soriano is still due 54 mil through 2013 and he’s not going to be getting any better. All that said he works on his craft and his teammates love him to death. It’s not his fault that Hendry overpaid, we would all take that money if it was offered to us. What was he supposed to do, decline? Soriano is not a sure bet to post a + .300 OBP this year, nor is he a sure thing to slug +.470, which is an awful combination. He is a bad fielder and he doesn’t run anymore, so of course people will label him as lazy. He isn’t. He’s overpaid, but that isn’t his fault. Soriano is likely to be on the team in one form or another for awhile. His dollars will be incredibly hard to trade, but that won’t stop the Cubs from shopping him around and potentially paying the lion’s share of his contract to play elsewhere.

1. Brett Jackson – There are legit reasons to be excited with Brett Jackson the prospect. He’s been climbing the Baseball America top prospects list for the past three years and enters the 2012 season as the #32 prospect in all of Baseball. This also makes him the best prospect in the Cubs system. Jackson has handled the relatively aggressive promotion pattern well. His ceiling is up for debate, none of his tools are eye popping, but he can be a Mike Cameron/Curtis Granderson type at the dish. His defense projects well, some see him being an eventual gold glove winner. Jackson does strike out a lot, but he has a decent walk rate which mitigates the k’s somewhat. He should get half a season of Major League pitching under his belt this year. Anything less will be seen as a disappointment.

2. Reed Johnson – Remember when Reed Johnson was gone for a year and it was fine because the Cubs weren’t going to compete this year anyway and he isn’t a difference maker? Johnson struggles to OPS over .800 most years, when his BABIP isn’t insanely high he struggles to hit over .300, and he is adored by Cubs fans for some reason. He has his uses, mainly against lefty pitching, but he’s perfectly tradeable, and he should be moved to a contender by the trade deadline for a decent haul. He’s a guy that can help a contending team, and the Cubs aren’t one yet.

3. Tony Campana – I want to root for this guy. He has legit speed as evidenced by his 24 for 26 stolen base performance last year. But he needs to play center in order for him to have any offensive value and that’s where Brett Jackson lives. He looks like a prototypical 4th outfielder, but Theo loves guys that can burn and play good OF defense, so he’s likely to stick around and get some playing time. He needs to find some gap power quick to stick in the lineup, but that’s not too likely.

4. Matthew Szczur – He’s behind the curve thanks to his football playing days at Villanova. He’s raw and it shows. He’s not major league ready and his ceiling is up for debate. I think his ceiling is a moving target, he’s obviously fast (80 on the traditional scouting scale for speed), but his future depends on what he learns at the lower levels. He has time on his side, so if he learns how to command the strike zone a bit he can be a more interesting prospect.

5. Dave Sappelt – He’s a meh. It looks like he’s destined to be a fourth outfielder, he never really wowed down on the farm. He has no outstanding skill, and most of his tools are merely average. He has some pop in his bat, but not enough to justify regular playing time. He has some speed but not enough to crack a lineup. He plays good defense which should be enough to carry him on most Major League rosters, but that’s about it.

Pitchers tomorrow