Through Both Lenses: Spraying To All Fields

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52

Growing up is hard. There are expectations that must be met as you grow older, society expects X from you, and you must provide X. Everyone goes through growing pains, some go through them more harshly than others. There are a select few, however, that go through the maturation process in front of millions of people. We call them athletes.

Watching a player struggle through his early years is all part of the game. We saw Griffey and A-Rod grow up before our eyes on the national stage, ditto with Michael, LeBron, and currently Toews, Kane, and Rose. They all went through/are going through growing pains. What I’ve noticed around Chicago is that while we don’t expect much from other cities young kids, we place impossible expectations on the rookies that come up through Chicago. This is specifically true in baseball.

Beckham and Castro

Gordon Beckham had an .808 OPS as a 22 year old rookie. He was brought up as a reactionary move to an offensive black hole that occurred when Josh Fields failed to produce. White Sox fans were anxious to see the Georgia kid at the major league level as they expected the Sox to repeat the surprising year they had in 2008. Ozzie famously said that if the White Sox had to call up Beckham it showed that they were in trouble. Well, they got into some trouble during the season and Kenny made the call to the farm.

Beckham’s start was good enough to earn him the Sporting News’ Rookie of the Year award.

‘‘I wish that kid was a two- or three-year veteran in the big leagues because he has that attitude,’’ Guillen said. ‘‘He has that right frame of mind. He was a leader his whole life from when he was in high school, college. I think he wants to be the face of the franchise, and we need something like that. When a player thinks like that, doesn’t hide in the weeds, you don’t see many players come up from the minor leagues and think that way. It’s a big challenge. But I don’t have a doubt in my mind that he has the right tools to be one. Obviously, it has to come from help from myself, Ken Williams and the staff to make him a great leader.’’

-Ozzie Guillen

Expectations were pretty high from there on out. When his offense cratered over the next two years, fans were puzzled. His rookie year was so outstanding, how could he not build on that and improve?

Starlin Castro has been a hit machine since he debuted with 6 RBI’s. With the bat in his hand he has been stellar. The major knock on him is his defense. He goes through lapses of concentration that are as baffling as they are infuriating. There isn’t a player in the majors that makes me go “that’s a great play,” to “that was a dipshit play,” in the same game quite like Starlin. As of writing time, he has twice as many errors (8), as walks (4). This makes a lot of Cubs fans irate.

And gives some ammo to Sox trolls

I’m pretty sure this guy is a White Sox troll

This invariably leads to a lot of talk of moving Castro to 3B, 2B, a corner OF spot, or 1B. The “Castro isn’t a SS” movement is gaining a lot of traction locally, and while it has quieted down some over the past month (He hasn’t committed an error in 16 games), you can bet that discussion will start cooking again when he commits another error.

I think it’s obvious that both Beckham and Castro are going through growing pains, albeit in opposite aspects of their respective games. Beckham plays sublime defense at 2B, he’s smooth, has range, and can make all the throws. He has an ugly hitch in his swing right now though, and he just can’t hit consistently. His minor hot streak has his average up to .204 with a paltry .627 OPS. Castro is still prone to lapses in the field, he’s flashing better leather lately, but he’s going to have to continue to play solid defense to shed the “butcher” tag. His defense is still a violent game, with flashes of smoothness. Both players are trying to make adjustments in the glare of the public eye. Both had the savior tag applied to them when they were brought up. Both need to be given time to properly show you what they are before you pass judgement. Beckham’s time is shorter than Castro’s because he’s older, but Cubs fans need to relax on the “Move Starlin off SS,” movement too.

Which, you know, brings me to Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson.

Superkids

Anthony Rizzo is still destroying AAA.

Geez, settle down

Brett Jackson…not so much

Cubs fans are eagerly anticipating the arrival of both players at the Major League level. Rizzo has a cute little twitter dedicated to him, @FreeRizzo. There are a few things that Cubs fans need to keep in mind when it comes to both players, and the Cubs in general.

• Neither Rizzo nor Jackson are going to save the Cubs in the short-term. This is a full on dedicated rebuilding that will look a lot like the Royals rebuild had a baby with the Nats rebuild. It’s going to take time. I hope the Cubs will be much better in 3 years, but much better is 80-85 wins. That could potentially be 20-25 wins better than the hypothetical 2012 record.
• The Cubs are ridiculously devoid of talent at the Major and high Minor League level. This past draft was the first one the Cubs have had in a while that impressed people around the league. There is zero pitching help at AAA.
• Trading Soriano is going to be really hard. He’s gimpy and people already know what kind of hitter he is. Why do I bring this up? Well, how else are you going to make room for Rizzo? LaHair to left, Rizzo at first is the aim.
• Speaking of Rizzo, I haven’t heard any respected talent scouts call him the second coming of Albert Pujols. I think that his ceiling is Paul Konerko level production, and he’s likely to simply be an above average 1B. That’s awesome, trust me, but it’s not a franchise changer. He shortened his swing, and I do think he’s ready for MLB, but he’s not likely to turn into a perennial MVP candidate.
• Jackson will be lucky to be Curtis Granderson pre-Yankees. Again, that’s awesome and I’ll take it, but we Cub fans need to stop pretending that he’s more than what he is. He’ll be solid, but I doubt he is ever considered an “impact” player.

Cub fans need to check our collective reality meter. We need to understand what this team is now, and what it will be in the future. This is a deep and real rebuild.

Speaking of reality checks

If the White Sox make the playoffs, and that’s a huge if, it’ll be because the other teams in the Central failed. Don’t start pretending like this team is good because they won 5 of 6 against the two worst teams in MLB. I would get pissed as a White Sox fan if Kenny Williams sees this squad and starts trading prospects for vets because he sees fools gold. Let’s look at a few things.

• The White Sox pitching staff is the best component of this team, but it’s schizophrenic at best and average on the whole at worst. The White Sox have a slightly above average staff ERA that is buoyed by Jake Peavy and Chris Sale.The other three starters all have ERA’s over 4. The enigmatic John Danks keeps alternating between good start and bad start. Phil Humber is similarly quizzical, as it looked like he had figured some things out with the perfect game, only to regress to “inconsistent” status over his next 5 starts. His walk rate is close to double what it was last year, and I think that’s a symptom of nibbling that could lead to future trouble. Gavin still lives in Gavin world, where sublime stuff is permanently married to a low pitching IQ.
• That offense is putrid, and Orlando Hudson will only help it so much. You can’t survive in the Cell with 3-4 offensive black holes. Eventually other teams will come into town and hit the HR’s that you aren’t. This is reflected in their 8-13 record at home.
• Jake Peavy is a ticking time bomb and you need to trade him for value. Seriously, he’s not going to sustain a .249 opponents BABIP. He’s stranding 79% of baserunners, which is similarly unsustainable, and his GB rate is at 31.1%.That flyball rate is asking for trouble in the Cell. The xFIP number is also pointing at a big ole regression to the mean. You can’t pitch on the margins like that and survive in a homer haven. It’s damn near impossible.
• Addison Reed is likely the only reliable reliever the Sox have in the pen. I have no idea what happened to Matt Thornton, but he’s been inconsistent the past two years. Will Ohman is still Will Ohman, and Hector Santiago is still trying to figure it out.

What the White Sox look like to me is a mediocre team in a mediocre division, it would be foolish to sell off parts of an already thin farm system when they declared this year to be a transitional year. White Sox fans have already spoken with their wallets what they think about this team so far, the empty seats are telling me that you don’t think they’re for real, so don’t be mad if they sell at the deadline.

At the end of the day

Both fanbases need to settle down. The Cubs shouldn’t rush Rizzo, the White Sox aren’t poised for greatness as currently constructed. The Cubs have awhile before they are true title contenders. The White Sox might seem closer, but be wary. Depending on the moves they make this year, their championship clock could be moved back by years.

What You Missed Over Your Drunken Mother’s Day

• Reggie Rose talks about brother Derrick’s successful ACL surgery, so that’s good, I guess…shoot me.
• Deng is totes gonna play in the Olympics. Here’s why he shouldn’t.
• Everyone is getting a statue these days.
• People still don’t know how to deal with LeBron’s dominance.
• Humber was good, bullpen? Bad. Very bad.
• Ventura says he would consider playing Dunn in left at Wrigley.
• Sale struggled in his return on Saturday, but at least his role was clarified. Cooper took it like he was Kenny’s bitch. Which he might be.
• Carlos Marmol is on the DL.
• SHARK!
• Brewers win 2 of 3 from the Cubs (one game actually put Tony to sleep. I was there. I know), force Cubs into the cellar by themselves.
• I go to you. I stick up for you. And if you take a Hamilton/Kemp HR chase away from us… I say fuck you Jobu. I do it myself
• Speaking of Josh Hamilton.

 

Through Both Lenses: Opening Day

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52

For me, Opening Day is about two things, baseball and faith. Our most polarizing teams, the Cubs and Sox, will be going into a season of transition. Both teams are at the bottom in terms of expectations. Nobody can honestly believe that next year is this year, or that the Sox will have a miraculous rebound and compete with the Tigers for the division. Faith is running low around town, and that’s perfectly understandable.

Indeed, these two teams will struggle all year to win a combined 150 games. This is not breaking news. Sports illustrated didn’t exactly endorse either side of town as a real threat to do anything of import this season, but I think it’s important to keep perspective on what really matters this year. The White Sox are on the back end of an arc that must always complete itself before a normal team can be competitive again. Cubs fans are familiar with this arc, it occurred during the 2009-2011 campaigns. It was in those years that the front office panicked as they saw the talent on the field get older and less effective. The window was closing too quickly for an organization that was ill-equipped to deal with a reload. The Cubs fabulously fell flat on their faces as the bad GM moves by Jim Hendry caught up and overshadowed the good ones. The decade of being a sometimes contender was officially over on July 22, 2011 when Hendry was finally fired, but in truth the Cub window had shut at the end of the 2008 NLDS.

The arc had completed itself and the Cubs lucked into Theo Epstein, and a new arc begins on the north side. The White Sox championship arc hinges on what the overall team mission is moving forward. Kenny Williams loves to avoid the rebuilding tag, but perhaps the Sox best shot at competing once again lies in a complete tear down. The ghosts of 2005 have given Kenny a second life as GM, something that is rare in the current baseball climate. The bad money is catching up with this team as the contracts of Alex Rios and Adam Dunn have hamstrung an organization that begs its fans to come out and buy tickets in early April so they can acquire talent in June and July. This arc is about to complete and the question that faces Kenny Williams, assuming he survives another bad season, is how to restock an organization that is completely devoid of impact talent without having to face the realities of a rebuild?

Indeed, it’s a question that both front offices have to face. The Cubs farm system is ranked higher than the Sox system by almost everyone, but their impact talent is all in the batting order. The Cubs pitching depth is lacking, and it’s something that Epstoyer will need to address moving forward.

If we were looking at a graph both of these teams would be around the same point, but the arcs are perceived to be moving in different directions. Whether they are or aren’t is immaterial for this season, and for tomorrow. Yeah, I know the Cubs are targeting 2014 as their Championship window and the Sox have yet to lay out a plan for beyond this season, but for me this year I can just enjoy baseball.

I haven’t been able to do that as a Cubs fan. There was always a desire to win this year. “Oh man, we can’t let this get to 100 years, we gotta win now,” type deal was going on before 2008. I mean, we can dial this sucker back to when the Cubs unexpectedly won 88 games in 2001 and set the bar sky high in 2002 only to fall soooo flat on their face that the hopes and dreams of an entire fanbase were pinned to the arm of a 21 year old California kid with something called a slurve. Then 2003 happened and the Cubs were set to compete again in 2004. Then Nomar got hurt and then the White Sox won the damn thing, and then they signed Alfonso Soriano to a crazy contract and then Lou came and then they caught fire in 2007 and then they were the best team in baseball in 2008 and then the let go of DeRo and then Milton Bradley was an asshole and then and then and then…

It was fucking stressful.

Yeah, I don’t want to be that fan that doesn’t care if they win or lose even though it sounds like I’ll be that dude this year. What I’m saying is that I’m looking at different things this year while understanding the result isn’t the end all be all this year. I don’t know who on the roster besides Castro will be on the next Cubs contender. So this year I’ll get to pay attention to the simple things that made me fall in love with the game to begin with. I’ll care about Castro’s approach at the plate, I’ll enjoy the simple elegance of a well turned double play. I’ll be paying attention to outfield positioning and fundamental yet aggressive baserunning. I’ll get to sit back and just watch the damn game without having to stress out about the Cardinals/Brewers/Reds for a change.

It’s gonna be nice around here for a year. For me at least. Some of you will still care about this years record, a lot more of you aren’t going to watch baseball after June. That’s fine, trust me. When I get that dollar ticket and end up down in the front row with the rest of the 15%, I’ll be thanking you for not caring this year.

I actually don’t begrudge you for being skeptical, but here are somethings that I don’t want Cubs fans to say this year:

HOW LONG DO WE HAVE TO DEAL WIT DIS THEO EPSTINE GUY! I’M PAYING TOP DOLLAR FOR SEASON TICKETS AND HE’S BEING CHEAP AND DOESN’T WANNA SPEND DA MONEYS!

No, you’re just wrong. There’s a plan in place. I don’t know when you bought your season tickets, but I’m pretty sure that in a few years when I believe the Cubs will be contending you won’t be complaining about how much you paid to watch a playoff worthy product on the field ever day. Season tickets are a risk man, I’d love to have your problem.

DA CUBS SHOULDA GONE AFTER DAT POOHOLES GUY, OR AFTER DAT PRINCE GUY!

No. The Cubs have a target date for when they want to spend money, and would prefer it not be tied into a guy like that for 10+ years.

DA CUBS ARE CHEAP DEY KEEP CUTTING DA PAYROLL!

Look at the money they are committing to scouting and development and then get back to me.

DEY SHOULD KEPT DAT KARCHNER GUY HE WAS A GOOD PROSPECT! AND DEY GAVE UP TOO MUCH FOR DIS EPSTINE GUY!

Cashner has a ceiling and it’s likely as a reliever. Those guys are a dime a dozen. Carpenter is hurt again and also had a ceiling as an RP. Epstein is worth more (although I do kinda wish the Cubs got the other Boargerts, but that’s neither here nor there).

SOX SUCK!

Please kindly shut the fuck up and never speak again. It really doesn’t matter and I think the Cubs might suck worse this year. You’re giving me a bad name.

IMA GO BE A SOX FAN NOW SCREW DIS REBUILDING CRAP!

Cool, more cheap seats for me.

WHO’S GONNA PLAY (X POSITION) DIS YEAR?

Someone from Iowa, I don’t care, it doesn’t matter in 2012.

DUDE, BRAH, LET’S GO TO THE (INSERT DOUCHEBAG NORTHSIDE BAR HERE) BRAH!

Die in a fire.

RYAN SANDBERG

Ryne douche

WE’RE NOT DAT FAR AWAY WE NEED TO GET SOMEONE AT DA DEADLINE (8 GB in June)!

I would take a look if it were to happen, but it won’t so shut the fuck up.

SHHHHH!

I will shove your white sunglasses so far up your ass if you ever shush me at a baseball game.

DEY LOST TO DA PIRATES IN AUGUST? TRADE EVERYONE ON DA TEAM DEY ALL NEED TO GO!

Yeah that’ll happen at some point, but it won’t be because they lost to the Pirates in August.

DIS (RANDOM 30 YEAR OLD IOWA CUB CALLUP) GUY IS PRETTY GUD HE’S GONNA BE A STAR!

He’s 30 and his name is Micah Jake Scales III. He’s not a young prospect, he’s about done growing up.

GO CUBS GO, GO CUBS GO, HEY CHICAGO WHADYA SAY DA CUBS ARE GONNA WIN THIS DAY!

Mercifully, their record should limit the number of times I hear this.

Conclusion

I’m just going to enjoy the ride this year. Sox trash talk won’t bother me, douche Cubs fans won’t bother me to an extent. I’m going to go watch more games this year because my faith in what the organization has been renewed. I could give you a bullshit line about how anything could happen and the Cubs could find themselves in contention this year, but I don’t believe that. It’s fine really. I’m just here to enjoy baseball.

Through Both Lenses: Centralized Questions

“Isn’t it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers take economists seriously.”

I think it’s important for baseball fans on both sides of Chicago to understand that neither the Sox nor the Cubs will be seriously competing this year. The Sox have a better shot at catching lightning in a bottle this year if they get great years from their roster, but it’s a big if at this point and oddly enough it can all hinge on Jake Peavy’s health, which is a scary proposition. The Cubs have virtually no hope, the rosters of the teams in front of the Cubs are all better. The Reds, Brewers and Cardinals will fight for the Central lead leaving the Cubs in a slap fight with the Astros and the Pirates to avoid the cellar.

So a lot of people are going to tune out without properly understanding what you’re watching. For the Sox this is Kenny’s last stand. His acquisitions all have a strange propensity to blow up in his face. Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey Jr., Jake Peavy, Alex Rios and Adam Dunn were all massive faceplants to this point. He let fan favorites Ozzie Guillen and Mark Buerhle take their talents to Miami. He hired a manager that no one knew was a serious candidate and took full control of this team moving forward. Any success the team enjoys will be his, but so will the failure. Not many GM’s get to fire 2 managers, so Kenny’s on the clock

Epstoyer is enjoying a honeymoon currently, but they’ll have to work efficiently to rebuild a decimated Cubs organization. The Cubs have almost no pitching help in the minors. There are a few Cub fans that will want the Cubs to win now . When Cubs start getting traded most of these will get restless and wonder what the aim of the organization is. There are even a few that believe Theo and company only won because they spent Yankee money. This is true to an extent, but the Red Sox also drafted wisely and had good talent come up from their farm system. The make over the Cubs are going to get will be impressive, but the clock will start once the Cubs trade a marquee name.

Which brings me to the purpose of these two pieces. AL/NL Central “Predictions.” I’m placing the teams in order of believed finish, but I’m not going to place a W-L value on it. We’ll start with the AL Central. NL Central will go live tomorrow.

1. Detroit Tigers – They are the favorite to win the division and they are a candidate tot make some noise in the playoffs. They added Prince to Miggy and have a potent offense. The lose of Victor Martinez will hurt as Ryan Raburn will get more burn in the lineup, but Prince more than makes up for that. We all know what Prince can do with the bat, ditto with Miggy. The real question is how awful that IF defense will be. Prince-Raburn-Peralta-Cabrera has a serious chance at being the worst IF defense of all time.

Especially considering that this dude played third 60 lbs ago.

It would be pretty astounding to see what Verlander would do with a good defense, but as it stands the defense shouldn’t affect him too much. He probably won’t be as great as his 2011 season, but he’ll still be a Cy Young candidate in 2012. The rotation guy that might suffer is Doug Fister. Verlander and Scherzer both strikeout batters at an above average clip, but Fister’s career SO/9 is 5.5. He upped it to 7.3 in 70 ip with the Tigers, but I would expect that rate to fall. The ‘pen is solid and a name to look for is Daniel Schlereth. If he can gain some semblance of control he can become a high leverage pitcher.

2. KC Royals – It’s hard to predict a 2nd place finish for a team that boasts Bruce Chen in it’s rotation, but here they are, on the back of what should be a rather impressive offense. The kids can play, Hosmer is legit and should emerge as KC’s best player overall this year. Alex Gordon is going to be a great leadoff hitter this year, and Moustakas should make some positive gains at the big league level this year. The question with this team is when will the pitching help get here? All of their starters are projected to be below average this year, the only pitcher that may be worth his salt will be Jonathan Sanchez. Daniel Duffy is a few years away and like I said, Bruce Chen is an important part of this rotation. A lot of what this team does moving forward will depend on what they can do to solidify the starters. The bullpen has some names to keep an eye on, but losing Joakim Soria hurts. I think the Royals take a major step forward but the rotation will hold them back from competing for a wild card spot.

3. Cleveland Indians – Carlos Santana is the damn truth. He will emerge as the best catcher in baseball this year. He’s great with the stick and he’s a good defender. The Indians should surprise people this year, but a bad offense will keep them from really making noise in the central. Shin-Soo Choo is key for the Tribe. If he can get back on his star track this year the Indians can scare the Tigers for a few months. If not, the Indians will be relegated to fending off the Sox and the Twins in third place. Ubaldo Jimenez won’t be competing for Cy Young’s anymore, but he is a solid top of the rotation pitcher. He should emerge as the ace over Justin Masterson this year. Josh Tomlin needs to increase his K rate to his minor league levels to have a breakout year, but he should still remain as a decent mid-rotation option. The Bullpen will keep this team from being a complete cellar dweller.

4. Chicago White Sox – It’s not an awful rotation. Danks should have a rebound year, Gavin is a candidate to have a great year, Chris Sale will make some noise in the rotation, but their success or failure all depends on the offense. Adam Dunn was historically bad and that saved Alex Rios from more criticism. Gordon Beckham lost his swing and will have a difficult time getting it back. AJ Pierzynski is hitting second in the lineup. Brent Morel will get significant playing time. It’s just a bad offense. Dunn should rebound somewhat, he’s currently crushing fastballs which is a good sign considering how slow his bat looked last year. Dayan Viciedo has light tower power but we have to wait and see how his game translates in the MLB. Rios is likely to hit 3rd for most of the season. The Sox have too many questions regarding the offense to be a serious contender, you have to hit HR’s in the Cell to compete, because everyone else will.

5. Minnesota Twins – This team is awful. Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham will carry the load on offense, and their pitching rotation will be flat out awful. Carl Pavano’s K-rate might dip below 4 this year. They have no frontline starter in their rotation. The bullpen will be using gasoline to put out the fires this year, there’s little help down on the farm, Justin Morneau is probably done playing baseball, they will be in the cellar this year. They have a long rebuild ahead of them and Gardy should probably get fired this year.

Through Both Lenses: The Sox Trio of Fail

I’ve been there before, down that path, feeling that same sinking feeling in the pit of your stomach. It’s the feeling you get deep within your being when you have so completely failed to live up to the expectations of people that support you. The sensation is truly nauseating. You begin to realize that people put their faith in your ability to perform a task, or to get a job, or to be special.

Yes, I’ve failed miserably before, odds are that I will again.

I’ve always had a soft spot for Adam Dunn. He is the type of slugger that I appreciate nowadays. Low average, walks a lot, hits monster home runs, strikes out quite a bit as well. I’ve drafted him to every fantasy team I’ve owned since 2006. There are three true outcomes when it comes to Adam Dunn, and I can appreciate that.

Last year was painful for me as well.

When you fail, when you fall down, it’s usually not in front of 20,000 people. To watch Adam Dunn last year was to watch the slow death of a confused animal. One who is not completely sure why it is dying, but one that is certain of it’s fate. Dunn knew he was going to fail towards the second half of last season. He looked lost in a mire of his own personal doubts and the pressures to perform a duty that used to come so easy to him before.

Perhaps that is the issue, it was easy before. There were little to no expectations for Dunn in his previous stops. Cincy was never in contention with him, Arizona had a brief stint as a contender when he was traded there, and the Nationals weren’t ready to contend when he landed there. His destiny as Sox DH was predestined, it’s a home run happy park, one where Dunn could exercise his prowess and become something more. He was traded to a team that was supposed to contend.

And then 2011 happened.

Historically, there has never been a full season collapse like this in baseball history. Think about that, baseball records have been reliably kept since 1885. Since then, no one has fallen on their face harder than Adam Dunn.

Dunn’s bat looked slower, and statistical evidence seems to back that claim up. From 2007 through 2010 Dun averaged 536 AB’s and struck out on a fastball 87 times pers season. In 2011, Dunn had 411 AB’s and struck out on a fastball 100 times. Pitchers threw fastballs to Dunn 62% of the time from 2007-2011, but in 2011 Dunn saw fastballs 69% of the time.

Pitchers aren’t afraid of Dunn, and that’s an issue. Adam Dunn needs to figure out if he truly loves baseball, because he didn’t just fail to live up to expectations, he set a record for failing.

There is one silver lining in his numbers.

Despite being historically bad, Dunn saw an uptick in his BB ratio. You can take this as a sign that his patience could help in 2012, or that he is too afraid to swing at anything and he lucked into a few walks. Either way, it’s something positive that he did.

Dunn wasn’t alone in failure on the south side. Rios and Beckham were supposed to be two very good hitters for the Sox. Rios was claimed off waivers by Kenny Williams in 2009 and had a respectable 2010 year. Beckham was a first round pick with a hitting pedigree from Georgia. He was a College World Series hero and many argued that he should have been the rookie of the year in 2009.

Both players were expected to have good years for a contending team in 2011, and both failed to meet expectations. Here is a graph of the trio’s wOBA

Or if you want more traditional stats:

Those three players had 1623 combined PA’s and severely under performed last year.

Rios looks like a gifted athlete. He patrols centerfield with grace and speed, he makes it all look so easy. His tools are apparent and that’s what makes his struggles so infuriating. He can be a good baseball player, but there is this odd mental block with him that is impossible to describe. He should be a 30 home run guy, but he isn’t. He should hit .300, but he doesn’t. He should be a gold glove centerfielder, but he never will be. Perhaps it is lapses in concentration that leads to his poor play, but he needs to play better.

Beckham looks like a lost cause. He was a stellar fielder at second base in the first half, but his fielding dipped as his bat never really got on track. He has regressed every year he’s been in the league, and that’s a terrible sign for a rookie phenom. Beckham collapsed in the second half last year, but the dip wasn’t as visible because he wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire in the first half. He struggled to hit .213 after the All-Star break as his K-rate shot through the roof.

Beckham will never be an OBP machine, he doesn’t walk enough and his swing looks lost, but he can be somewhat valuable since his glove could theoretically justify his bat. He needs to be around .270-.280 for that to happen.

The White Sox have an outside chance at competing in 2012. The Tigers IF defense will be awful and there is a slight chance the the Sox will pitch enough to stay in the race. The mitigating factor will be the bats. 3 of the 4 times the Sox have made the playoffs in New Comiskey the team has belted 200+ home runs. That’s the magic number, if the Sox can hit, the pitching might hold up enough to stay relevant into September. For that to happen, these three players will have to play well.

Dunn is the wild card, if he can return to form, the Sox will do well. The question with him will always be about his love for the game. Picking up a bat this offseason was a healthy start, but he’s going to have to mash for the Sox to compete.

Episode 009 – Hit Em Up Podcast Style

[audio http://awmr01.podbean.com/mf/web/pxh9vn/Episode009.mp3]

 

In this episode we absolutely hate on Skullsplitter, talk some Cubs, some Starlin Castro, switch out to PBR, sent a shot across the bow at another show, curb our expectations for the 2012 Cubs season, talk Cubs prospects, lament the Cubs starting rotation, we time travel a little bit, we talk about the Blackhawks recent streaks,  we try to figure out which Chicago coach gets fired next, we discuss what John Starks is up to now in honor of Linsanity, we remember Slam Ball, we have an impromptu Celebrity Basketball draft,  Andy finally starts reading Moneyball, Andy and Raul think the Sox will suck this year, and we do a top ten most misunderstood athletes.

Episode 008 – ALEXEEEEIII! YES, YES, HISTORY!

In this episode, we forget football ever happened, we review Soxfest, interview Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo, review a great Chicago brew (not Ronnie Brewer), discuss a lot of baseball, and reveal our favorite sports books of all time.

The White Sox Best Acquisition So Far

Catchers are a funny beast. It’s rare to have the Carlton Fisk model of consistency. More common is the Roy Campanella model which truly displays the volatility of the position that is arguably the most physically demanding in baseball (perhaps starting pitcher is more taxing, but that’s really only one body part that gets damaged).

Victor Martinez is of course now a DH and the Tigers are not hurting behind the dish with Alex Avilla handling the catching duties. Yet even while playing a significantly less stressful position Martinez has managed to put most of his 2012 season in jeopardy, and that only means great things for the White Sox. Martinez was a cog in the Tiger lineup. He provided some gap power (40 doubles last year) and a tremendous control of the bat (.330 avg. in 2011). Replacing that production in the DH spot will be something the Tigers struggle with all year.

A torn ACL is no joke, athletes are never the same after an ACL injury. It robs your athleticism. It’s a good thing Martinez was already relegated to the DH role because his catching career is all but over at this point, and it’s questionable if he can take 1B duties anymore. His talent with the bat, however, was clear last year. He had an increase in his Line-Drive Ratio, he cut his strike out percentage, he had a slight uptick in his walk percentage, he had the highest batting average of his career, by many metrics it was his best year at the plate (largely thanks to no longer being behind it). He was an extremely productive player for the Tigers and one of the reasons they one the division.

The Tigers will struggle to replace that production. Their options on the bench are limited, you can theoretically slot Magglio Ordonez in the DH slot and play Ryan Raburn out in the outfield, but it’s still clear that there will be a dip in production next year.

Take a look at these graphs. It compares Martinez to the league average (where blue is league average and Martinez is green).

Mags is still a great hitter, but he’s not replacing that.

What does it mean for the White Sox? It means that they can pretend to contend for another year. We’ve seen this song and dance from Kenny Williams before. He pays the lip service to the fan, “All In” being a prime example of this. The teams he assembles, however, were always a potpourri of what he wanted and what Ozzie demanded. This year, however, it’s all on Kenny. The rebuilding word has been thrown around in the offseason, but I’m not one to believe that Kenny will remain patient, especially now that this little speck of blood hit the AL Central waters.

Kenny has balls, I’ll give him that much. A lot would have to go right for the White Sox for them to be serious contenders, Dunn and Rios would have to hit just a little bit, ditto with Beckham. Peavy would have to actually contribute something, Danks needs to replace the Golden Redneck, Floyd would have to find some consistency. It’s not impossible that the Sox are contenders for the AL Central crown early in the 2012 season. It wouldn’t fit into the rebuilding plan, however. Do you believe that Kenny would stick to the plan and let a gettable division pass him by?

I don’t. He’ll go for it if it’s there, and it might cost him his job.