A Trip Through A Kid’s Card Collection

By: Matthew Kohl
Email: virtualsportsman@gmail.com
Twitter: @virtuallymatt

The baseball off-season can be fraught with peril for some. Especially if you don’t care for many,
or any, of the winter sports. Baseball fans who aren’t content to follow the free agent game or the trade rumors have a few options to scratch the baseball itch. For example, I like to take a trip through my childhood baseball card collection. My card binder is one of very few things I have left from my youth and it’s the oldest thing I own that I purchased with my own money. It’s interesting to see who I thought was worth putting in the book versus who got clipped into the bike spokes since I only collected cards from players and teams I liked. I didn’t care if they were stars, though many were, and I didn’t care if they played for a rival team. Sometimes a card would get promoted from the box to the binder and sometimes they would get demoted, a practice which accounts for entire pages with only a single card on them in some instances. I don’t change it these days even though the order of cards and grouping of players is ramshackle at best and absolutely maddening when I’m looking for something specific.

Whenever I go through the book, I’m reminded of cards I had that would be worth having today or in the future had I kept them. I didn’t care enough about the players at the time to do so. Allusions of monetary gain be damned as I firmly stand by those edicts that decided what or whom was worth keeping, mysterious as they were. Mariano Rivera’s 1992 Bowman rookie card may disagree with me tossing it aside, but what kid keeps a baseball card featuring some twit standing in khakis and a polo shirt in his collection? Besides, he played for the evil empire. Sometimes though, I get confused as to why I kept something in the book.

WHO THE HELL?

“Who in the hell is Mariano Duncan?” That’s usually the first question I ask myself whenever I peruse the book. He’s on the first page. He was a 2B/SS and career .267 hitter who is currently the hitting coach for the Chicago Cubs AA affiliate Tennessee Smokies by the way. I learned that from Wikipedia just today! Even though his career may have been a bit underwhelming, I don’t dare take the card out. For one reason or another an eight year old me thought it belonged in the book and I don’t doubt that reason was a good one. Its placement on the bottom right corner leads me to believe it’s one of the first nine cards I ever put in there. It’s possible it could even be from my very first pack of cards.

I probably kept him because he had good fundamentals.

Another player who I have several cards from that also has a Cubs connection is Pat Listach, though I know why I kept his cards. He was second place to only Kenny Lofton in stolen bases and won Rookie of the Year honors in 1992. All but one of the cards I have from him are from that season. Coincidentally, he didn’t do much else the rest of his playing career. He’s currently the Cubs third base coach and was voted Pacific Coast League Manager of the Year in 2008 for leading the Iowa Cubs to the postseason. So he has that.

These are great looking cards though.

THE WEIRDNESS

There are also some strange phenomena that permeate my card binder. One of which I call the “Doc Strawberry Page.” It’s weird that two players who got famous in two different decades that both practically ruined their respective careers through drug use ended up grouped together. I knew about the drug problems they had even as a kid. Maybe I thought if I kept them together, but segregated from the other cards, the other players couldn’t do drugs with them. I really loved Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden. I was disappointed to see their careers go downhill for such stupid reasons when they both had such great natural talent. I never really gave up on either of them though. That’s probably why I’m so unforgiving of players today.

Another bit of weirdness is what I like to call the Eric Karros Quartet. I’ve grown to dislike him even more as an adult due to his lackluster commentary but I absolutely hated Karros as a kid. Why I kept any of his crap let alone four of the same card is completely unexplainable. In hindsight though, he looks a lot like my cousin Gary. Maybe I thought he was just moonlighting as a police officer.

Fuck you Eric!

I don’t have a name for this one but probably the strangest thing that appears in my collection is the random presence of a Damon Berryhill card every other page or so. It begins on the tenth page mysteriously adjacent to Mike Scioscia. Then he appears again on the very next sheet next to Gary Gaeti, another player whose inclusion I have no explanation for. This continues on for another 15 pages until the second to last one where a wall dedicated to Ryne Sandberg ends the curse. I don’t really think I liked him as a player and I can’t imagine I would have liked anything about him other than the fact that he was a catcher, but even that’s a sketchy theory. I didn’t even really care for the Cubs too much until later in 1998 or 1999 so it’s weird that I would have so many of his cards let alone put them in my binder. I can’t figure out why they’re so scattered either. Unless somebody else can come up with a reason, I’ll just have to leave this mystery to future generations.

A selection of Berryhills. Maybe I liked his name?

THE HEROES

One of the heroes of my youth.

Still, there are some cards that really do deserve to be in my collection. In fact, one of my favorite pages in the book is the Bo Jackson page. I loved everything about Bo Jackson when I was young. I loved him so much I even picked up a Raiders hat when I had no connection whatsoever with football. In fact, Bo Jackson was the reason I began watching football. If it wasn’t for Bo, I would have entirely missed the final years of Joe Montana’s amazing career (another player I idolized as a child) and the best days of Steve Young’s. I was excited as all hell when he came to the White Sox, and now that I really think about it, he was the reason I started paying any attention at all to my local sports teams. Well, he and Mark Grace, who I was never lucky enough to get a card of…

…but whatever.

Of the stranger memories regarding Bo Jackson was the cartoon with him, Wayne Gretzky, and Michael Jordan. It was called Pro Stars and it was ridiculous.

And Then There Was 1(4)

An animated look at who was left from the 2005 White Sox World Series Roster.
Better version:

Fun with Charts and Stuff

Here is a quick and dirty look of the overall WAR contributions per team.

Here is a total breakdown of where each team’s main WAR contributions came from.

This images illustrates how the 10 playoff teams used the draft to gain contributions from their roster. What obfuscates this chart a little bit is the Yankees column, which misleads since they technically let Derek Jeter walk before resigning him, technically making him a free agent. The Nationals obviously got big contributions from their two elite draftees. The Cardinals and Braves stacked systems are also on display here.

Here is WAR contributions that came via the trade. The A’s and Tigers lead this category, the Tigers are buoyed by Miggy’s MVP year. The Yankees column is again, thinner than it should be since they technically let A-Rod walk before resigning him.

And here is the Free Agent WAR contribution chart. The Yankees obviously dominate this chart, but it clouds how they build their team a bit. A Rod was acquired via trade, Derek Jeter, who is listed as a Free Agent acquisition, was drafted.

Amateur Free Agents run the gamut. The Yankees biggest Amateur Free Agent contributor is Robinson Cano. This is, coupled with the draft, is a way teams acquire cheap talent.

The Other chart shows contributions via the Rule 5, Waiver claims, etc, etc. These other avenues pay off less, as you can see, but sometimes you can find talent there. It happens less often, however.

Here’s a preview of what I’ve been working on for 2 months. The initial finds will be up at WSD.

A Few Notes On Nate Schierholtz

[youtube http://youtu.be/L5KG9h8S13Y]

Cubs sign Nate Schierholtz to a one year deal – He’s guaranteed 2.25mm with 500k in performance bonuses. Last year Schierholtz posted a .728 OPS with a triple slash line of .257/.321/.407. He lacks plate discipline and he has minimal pop, but the main reason the Cubs went after him was his defense. The Cubs have average pitching right now, one way to cover up average pitching is to surround it with above average defense. The Cubs won’t miss many bats, but if they combine their defensive shifting philosophy with good defenders the Cubs can pump some decent value out of so-so starters. In the end that’s what really matters, getting a good return via the trade.

Schierholtz is a league average player, and he’s likely to either be dealt at the deadline or gone after this year. Don’t look for him to provide pop or be a great offensive player. He’s here to help the pitching staff.

Center Field Options – David DeJesus is likely to be pushed to center as a result of this move which sets up an interesting possible rotation in the OF. The Cubs have said that Brett Jackson will start the year at AAA, which is the right move. There are rumors swirling that Jackson has changed his swing which he hopes will cut into his K rate. If the Cubs are unable to move Soriano prior to Opening Day it is possible that both Dave Sappelt and Tony Campana see burn at CF with Soriano, DeJesus, and Schierholtz all rotating off days and positions. Soriano is a player that will need rest as he transitions into the final stages of his career.

Needless to say, this is the best opportunity Brett Jackson is going to have at becoming a Major League regular.

MLB Rule 5 Draft

The Cubs selected Hector Rondon from Cleveland in the Rule 5 draft – Rondon threw 7 professional innings in 2012 as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Before he went down he featured a good fastball and good command. The breaking stuff had yet to develop and had 3 starter ceiling pending his recovery. This is another move to acquire pitching talent for the Cubs, something that has been noticeably lacking in the past.

The White Sox selected Angel Sanchez in the Rule 5 – Angel has seen some playing time at the MLB level, he has 628 career MLB Plate Appearances. It appears that the White Sox are going for high contact guys this offseason. Sanchez is a bit of a utility guy, he has logged innings at 2B, SS, and 3B. It’s looking more and more likely that Gordon Beckham is on his way out of town. Rule 5’s have to be on the MLB roster or else they are returned to their previous team.

Cubs are pursuing Jason Grilli – Grilli has put together two solid years in Pittsburgh with acceptable WHIP #’s and high K/9. Grilli was always a guy who could miss bats but would inexplicably get hit. He slashed his BABIP numbers which could be luck or it could be that he’s not getting hit as hard. Regardless, Grilli is a serviceable reliever. – via Peter Gammons

 

White Sox sign Jeff Keppinger and other Winter Meeting Notes

White Sox signed Keppinger to a 3 year, 12mm deal – Keppinger’s deal opens up some new possibilities for the White Sox. He has some positional flexibility, although it is assumed that he will play third, and he is a contact hitter that can hit second in the lineup. Diversifying the batting order is something the White Sox have struggled with in the past. The 2012 White Sox struggled in September and seemed to be overly reliant on the HR ball. Keppinger is an upgrade over whatever position he takes, he’s better than both Morel and Beckham (UZR, a defensive metric, also likes his defense over Youk’s at third. UZR is still in it’s infancy, however, so take that with a grain of salt).

The move also indicates that they have perhaps moved beyond Youkilis which might free them up to add other pieces. Merkin thinks they go for another INF or a Catcher, assuming AJ is gone. There have been some rumblings that they can be dark horse candidates for a big name starter, like Greinke, but I think the dollars are too high for that to be a real possibility. Greinke is likely to get over 160mm.

My hunch is that AJ is gone, the Sox trade for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and add a smaller name free agent pitcher like Anibal Sanchez or even Brandon McCarthy. Either way, the White Sox rumor mill is heating up and we will keep you guys posted.

Demp might be back after all – Rumors are swirling that Dempster might be back on the north side in 2013. Dempster turned down a contract from the Royals and the Brewers are playing a bit of hardball with him. The Cubs are looking for starters and if they are left out on the names they’ve been chasing, McCarthy et al, there is a real possibility that Dempster returns.

The Cubs are also looking at free agent 3B like Mark Reynolds. He’s a high risk, high reward play but he is an upgrade over Ian Stewart. The Cubs won’t be adding big names until they feel ready for contention, so guys like Reynolds are going to be the norm for a while.

Chicago Wrap Up

Urlacher could miss the rest of the season – A hamstring injury could cut Urlacher’s season short and there’s the very real possibility that he has played his last game as a Chicago Bear. There is no clear replacement on the current team either. Awful news. – via Suntimes.com

Derrick Rose is running and stuffz – PLEASE DON’T GET MORE HURT – via CBS Sports

Kevin Youkilis has several offers – Given the weakness of the 3B market this shouldn’t be too surprising. Yanks are kinda in, Phils, White Sox, and Indians are more serious contenders. – via Hardballtalk

In related news, the White Sox are looking at Keppinger – As one of their backup options should Youk sign elsewhere. – via MLBTR

Brewers, Demp, at a standstill – Dempster is looking for a third year in any contract and the Brewers are balking at it. – via MLBTR

 

 

In Which Andy and I Attempt To Solve The White Sox. And Fail.

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52

Andy

• Is it possible for the White Sox to trade Alexei to the Padres for Headley? What needs to make that happen [sic]?
• The White Sox should trade Tank and prospects for a solid hitting LH left fielder.
• Floyd for prospects, sign BMac to a one year deal and pray the Tigers get injured. That’s my off-season plan.

Moe

• That’s one I hadn’t heard of. I think the Pads are going to want some tier one prospects for Headley and may ask for Sanchez+. Trading Tank is a possibility. I think you can move him for some RP help.
• BMac is a good deal too, but he might be homer prone at the Cell.

Andy

• He needs to go, no place for all those L’s [sic} when Dunn has his.
• I’m really out of ideas for the Sox. Wish they would have tanked all last year. Then they would be rebuilding. 😦

Moe

• He doesn’t walk yet. His approach is flawed at the fundamental level.
• Haha I fell [sic] you.
• Feel

Andy

• Not L’s. K’s

Moe

• Yeah I figured. They are still talking to Youk. I think they should pursue Salty, maybe that’s the Tank trade.

Andy

• I’m not feeling Youk for a full season. Oh shit I forgot the k machine Tyler Flowers.\
• Yeah Tank needs to go, I guess Salty could help that.

Moe

• They need a catcher if they want to be serious.
• Another arm would help too. Floyd is a popular name. Would you go for a Floyd+Tank for Salty and a pen arm?
• And ‘specs headed the WSox way?

Andy

• In all honesty they need to sign AJ back. Not because he’s going to play anything like he did last year. But just the way he handles the staff. They should fall back a bit without him. However, a solid catcher could stop that. Flowers can’t be the guy. 
• Yes I’d take that trade.
• Still need another decent left-handed bat.

Moe

• And a swing starter. They need to cover for Peavy/Danks. 

Andy

• Yeah I’m not sure about Danks at all. I feel better with Peavy and last year. But he’s always a liability.

Moe

• Yeah he had a great year but you never know with that guy. Let’s assume BMac for a moment. Danks-Peavy-Floyd-BMac, who’s the 5? -Ed note. DERP

Andy

• Still think they need to get lucky and have Detroit lose three guys. Also Cy Chen needs to get the hell out of the Central lol.
• Quintana
• If Quintana fails I guess you go through the gambit of guys they found success with during the season.

Moe

• You gotta stretch out Quintana. SP’s need to give you 900IP at least IMO.
• Err
• Santiago

Andy

• Yeah Santiago is probably the sixth guy. So keep him in the minors. What can Floyd net from a trade? Prospect wise?

Moe

• Floyd is dodgy but he makes 29 starts a year. That has value. You can get some mid level guys or a solid MLB ready RP with him IMO. The problem becomes filling up his 175 IP.
• You need to flip Tank for an SP if you can at that point.

Andy

• Yeah I thought maybe two mid level guys. 

• You forgot Sale. Ed. Note – DERPYDERPDERP

• Yeah if you can’t get BMac you have to flip for a real starter.

Moe

• Duh.
• So Sale-Peavy-Danks-BMac-Quintana and Santiago as the swing.
• You can flip Floyd for a C and some pen arms.
• And Tank for the same (pen arms). Still should probably get another swing guy to be sure though.

Andy

• Still not enough to make a dent on Detroit
• Back to the drawing board 😦

Moe

• Nope and the 2nd WC is a bitch.
• lol
• Just go YOLO and sign Boozey and Depressed.

Andy

• Haha!!

Ed. Note – Yeah, this happened at midnight so there is a lot of weird/stupid mixed in. Bottom line, the White Sox are going to have to get real creative or hope for a plane crash if they want to compete in the Central in our opinion.

 

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On Scott Feldman

“Scott Feldman

Feldman’s inability to strand runners and keep them from scoring ultimately got him booted from the Rangers rotation. Before that, he was showing some pretty decent skills, with career bests in both strikeout and walk rates. Unfortunately, he was either leaving too many meatballs over the plate or just suffering from some poor fortune, as his line drive rate was a whopping 26%. He might even consider himself lucky for only allowing a .318 BABIP, but to be fair, he also induced pop-ups at a strong 15.2%. Feldman has been in and out of the Rangers rotation and has typically fared poorly, and at this point of his career, there’s little reason to expect much differently going forward.”

–Fangraphs.com

 

“Feldman, 29, posted a 5.09 ERA in 123 2/3 innings (21 starts, eight relief appearances) for Texas this season. He recorded a sharp 3.0 K/BB, but a poor 10.1 hits allowed per nine innings kept runners circling the bases. He is largely a control-and-finesse pitcher, striking out just 96 batters and allowing a high 82.5 percent contact rate. The danger of giving up contact so often — particularly with a fastball averaging just 90.5 mph — is plenty of chances for hits to fall in, and that did in Feldman this season.”

–CBS Sports

“Now in his eighth season with the Rangers, Feldman has amassed a 4.84 ERA, 5.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across seven-hundred nineteen career innings. The way Feldman’s contract was structured may lead one to believe the Rangers were hoping to see growth from the right-hander that just has not occurred. There are several reasons I am not a general manager, but $9.25 million seems like a lot to give to a long reliever and sometime spot-starter putting up replacement level numbers.”

–SB Nation

“In the closing of the post, I noted that Feldman “might be one of the best buys on the market.” Well, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that he’s headed to the north side of Chicago — the Cubs are making themselves the destination for undervalued starting pitchers.”

–Fangraphs.com

“Though Feldman had a 5.08 ERA last season, his 3.81 FIP gives reason for optimism. His strikeout rate jumped to a career-high 17.9 percent, and his walk rate plummeted to just four percent, both good indicators of an improving player. One of the reasons for such a large difference between Feldman’s ERA and his FIP can be found in Feldman’s ability to hold runners on base. Last season, Feldman only stranded 61 percent of all runners on base. That’s far off his career-average, which sits at 67.1 percent. A difference that large is likely to bounce back, and should contribute to Feldman being more effective next year.”

–CBS Sports

“In 2012, he was healthy, but not that great: 29 appearances, 21 starts, with a 5.06 ERA and 1.383 WHIP. The Cubs are hoping the transition to the National League will help those numbers improve;”

–SB Nation

 

It’s odd how a player’s outlook can improve by simply signing with another team. Jed Hoyer said this of Feldman: “If you look inside his [2012] numbers, they weren’t what he hoped but he also was one of the least lucky pitchers. It wasn’t as bad as the ERA on paper.” I’m not quite convinced that Feldman will have enough success to bring back value in a trade or last 180 ip. I do think the Cubs will have to tinker with his stuff for him to be successful. A move from Arlington to Wrigley isn’t as kind as people make it out to be.

Here are his home road splits over his career. Take from that what you will…

Through Both Lenses: What The Longoria Extension Means For The Cubs

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mrubiophoto52@gmail.com
twitter: @MRubio52

Cubs fans should take note of the Evan Longoria extension. The 3B is locked up to be in Tampa Bay until 2023, well beyond his peak value as a player. His best years are likely to be in Tampa (unless he is traded).

Chicago Cubs fans have a reflex, a default setting that refuses to be turned off. We desperately want to win a World Series but our collective idea of how that should be accomplished is just off. When Prince Fielder hit the free agent market while the Cubs were beginning the tear down phase we the fans judged that the big market Cubs should sign Fielder and try to compete THIS YEAR.

In fact, anytime a free agent hits the market (Pujols comes to mind immediately) we the Cubs fans pine for said player  desperately hoping that he is the solution to the apparent Curse of the Cubs. It’s what we default to. It’s how we react to big names that can be had for big bucks.

It’s incredibly short-sighted and given recent events it’s likely to become more and more unlikely.

TV revenue is going up in baseball which means that more teams have more money to play with. I mean hell, the Dodgers pulled off trades for Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett, and Brandon League while taking on an ungodly amount of payroll and then bid 25.7MM to have exclusive negotiating rights with Korean pitcher Ryu Hyun-Jin. And none of that money matters as much because they just got a TV deal worth 6-7 billion dollars. I think they will be able to afford to keep their young talent on the roster.

More teams are going to try and extend their talent like the Nationals did with Zimmerman, what the Rays just did with Longoria, and what the Cubs did with Castro. The upcoming free agent classes are pretty weak. Going on a spending spree and trying to fix it all via free agency is a flawed plan, there aren’t enough solutions that are likely to hit the market anytime soon.

We don’t like the rebuilding thing. It bothers us as fans. I’ve heard a lot of arguments to the contrary, mainly the “I pay a lot of money for season tickets I want them to go for it NOW!” variety (other hits? “How long do I have to wait?” “We’re a big market team we should spend like a big market team.” “We don’t know if any of the prospects will be any good.”).

Yet the Cubs will continue to rebuild. In all honesty the complete tear down isn’t quite complete yet. Soriano and Garza are still on the books and we’re only one draft into this experiment.

The Cubs are going to have to do this with smart player development and good trades. You know, do it like a good baseball organization. There is a tremendous organization in the NL Central that the Cubs will have to deal with. The St. Louis Cardinals have a tremendous mix of star players and great young talent waiting for their turn. If you think the Cubs best option for dealing with a Cardinals organization that is capable of unloading and reloading with good talent is to spend short-term and have an empty cupboard of minor league talent…well, I can’t help you then.

Because I don’t.