Through Both Lenses: MLB Draft pt. 1 – The White Sox

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52

The purpose of this article is to inform you, the Chicago baseball fan, about the draft as much as I can. If you want some hardcore draft analysis, check out Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus. I’ll reference that and other sites a lot, so it’s probably a good idea to get yourself acquainted with their work.

The MLB draft is gaining a lot of attention locally with Theo Epstein coming to town to run the baseball ops of the Chicago Cubs. I think this is the most attention the draft has ever received locally. What the draft means to White Sox fans should also be important for a few reasons. The Chicago White Sox have been in a weird “Win Now” mode since 2000. I can’t think of many developmental years since Kenny Williams became the GM. He’s earned a reputation as a gambler, someone who views prospects as suspects, and most importantly, a GM that isn’t afraid to empty the system to go after talent.

That’s why the White Sox farm system is panned so often. We can look it over and talk about the contributions that former farm hands are giving to the Sox, most impressively Chris Sale. However, it’s no big secret that Kenny’s impact guys usually come via trade or Latin American/Free Agent signing. Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel, and Tyler Flowers are the only position players that were drafted by the Sox and up with the big club. All three are failing to produce and all three are likely candidates to be replaced next year. The pitching side has done much better, pumping out Chris Sale, Addison Reed, and Nate Jones in an extremely small sample size.

It’s not fair to say that the White Sox don’t draft well, they clearly do as they are able to flip prospects for good talent with some regularity. They landed Peavy for Dexter Carter, Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard and Adam Russell. All talent from their farm system, all turned into a solid contributor so far this year. They flipped Gio Gonzalez for twice. He was traded to the Phillies for Thome, sent back to the Sox for Freddy Garcia (the White Sox also landed Gavin Floyd in this trade), sent to Oakland for Nick Swisher and then he finally ended up in Washington where he is currently enjoying some success.

What does that say about the White Sox and the draft in general? It says to me that the White Sox don’t trust the draft much. You can’t really blame them for that either, the MLB draft is one of the biggest enigmas in all of sports. The talent is so raw yet so far away from the Major League level. The chasm between AAA ball and MLB ball is wide, and it’s illustrated by the MLB failures that proceed to tear up AAA ball for years. Bobby Scales currently has a .945 OPS at AAA Buffalo and he isn’t close to being a Major League player.

With all that in mind, here are some things to keep in mind when watching the draft:

• Nobody drafts for need. Best Available player is always selected in the first 12-15 rounds. Sometimes teams will end up drafting 4-5 shortstops in the first 10 rounds because those are the best players on the board. You don’t know who will actually end up sticking at their positions either, especially shortstop.
• High school players are still a bad bet. If you find the right guy, he could turn into Rickey Henderson, but more often than not they just end up being Billy Beane.
• Speaking of Beane…It’s no coincidence that the best player that Beane took in the Moneyball draft was a guy that both the numbers guys and scouting guys loved, Nick Swisher. Keep that in mind. Both of these things must work in harmony. Numbers tell only one side of the story, ditto with a pretty swing.
• This draft blows. Consensus is that there is no franchise changer in this draft. It’s also really thin and some are calling it the worst draft in 20+ years.
• Don’t expect the kids to come up anytime soon. Or at all. The most important thing to watch during a draft, I think, is to look for a plan. What are they drafting? Are they going all athletes? Are they going after pitchers with raw arms? Are they targeting more groomed College pitchers? Are they taking risks on broken wings? What’s their plan is more important than who they draft in a lot of ways.

Let’s get to the names that are being projected for the White Sox. Like I said, check Prospectus for their big board, it should be coming out pretty soon and it’s a really great board.

There isn’t a consensus #1 in this draft, which makes the unenviable task of projecting picks even more difficult and impossible. A few different outlets have the Sox taking either an SP or a 3B, but let’s look at 5 guys I think they should take with the pick if they’re there.

Joey Gallo – 1B/3B Bishop Gorman HS

[youtube http://youtu.be/oXVr2gKr1Po]

He pitches too, but he projects much better as a corner infield prospect. Here are some of his scout videos. From what I gather about his defense, it’ll be a shocker if he sticks at third. He’s committed to LSU, but if he gets drafted and offered the money, I can’t see how he would turn it down.

What I like

The swing is nice and easy, it’s fluid, repeatable and generates power. It’s not a batting practice swing either, he shows it in the game. He hit .506 last year with 20 HR’s in high school. He’s got a big frame that projects to fill out nicely. Strong arm.

What I don’t like

He’s not quick on his feet, I can’t see him sticking at third at all. He’s a high school kid, so the risk factor is high with him there. Also, his speed is meh already and he won’t get any quicker. His bat would play better at third.

Synopsis

Good bat, has a lot of potential. If I was Kenny I would draft him if he were available.

Richie Shaffer – 3B/1B Clemson

[youtube http://youtu.be/899EWcexyGU]

Another 3b/1b guy, this isn’t to replace either Konerko or Morel, but I think these guys project to be the types of guys that can rake at the Cell.

What I like

Good swing, consistent approach from the cages to the game. Improved his OBP and SLG every year at Clemson. Athletic body, closer to being a finished product.

What I don’t like

Looks like he didn’t handle the transition to third too well, sporting a .935 FLDG%. Swing plane is a little flat. He strikes out too much. 48K’s in 218 AB’s at the collegiate level.

Synopsis

Interesting guy, better feet than Gallo, can learn to be adequate at third, but he’ll never be a good 3B. Decent enough arm.

Deven Marrero – SS Arizona State

[youtube http://youtu.be/TLQyIC9iWsI]

The Pirates are high on him, but he could slip.

What I like

The glove and the arm are nice. Feet are quick too. Bat has some life to it.

What I don’t like

His stance is weird and will probably be corrected in the minors. His hitting collapsed this year, even though the tools are still evident. He didn’t put together a solid year with the glove even though the word on him is that his glove is close to MLB ready. Plus arm, reads the ball well off the bat, and he can pick it. The high error rate is perplexing.

Synopsis

The bat will be a project. He does flash power, but that stance/weight transfer is just ugly. He has the tools to stick at short, but he’ll have to cut the mental errors.

Lucas Giolito – SP Harvard-Westlake School

[youtube http://youtu.be/WeqhrGzMjjM]

Ahh, the prototypical problem HS arm.

What I like

God that arm.

What I don’t like

God that arm is hurt.

Synopsis

He’s got an incredibly high ceiling, and if he stayed healthy, he could have creeped into the top 10. He was a fireballer with intriguing breaking stuff before the injury, now teams will be interested to see how he bounces back into form. I would risk it.

Andrew Heaney – SP Oklahoma State

[youtube http://youtu.be/JytqYmEbt9w]

Could go in the single digits, but he might be there for the Sox

What I like

He misses a lot of bats. 120 K’s in 102 IP. Good command too, only 19 BB’s. Decent fastball, sits around 93, drops to 88 late in games. Off-speed stuff is interesting.

What I don’t like

He throws a bit like Walter Johnson, which worked for The Big Train, but not so much this guy. The delivery is easy and repeatable, but I’m not a fan of it. His body is slight, and won’t get bigger in a good way. Fastball is what it is.

Synopsis

Potential to be a 3/4 starter, flashes good stuff, can obviously miss bats at the college level which is key.

 

Yeah I know, there’s a lot of HS talent there. That’s what’s up there in terms of talent in this draft though. College players didn’t wow this year. Those are the five I would target as the Sox. There isn’t much in this draft. The good intriguing talent should be gone by then. Cubs tomorrow.

Through Both Lenses: Extending Garza and the Window of Competition

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52

“…I do think it’s fair to say we have to spend some time rebuilding the pitching staff. I look at what happened last year from the outside with them losing two starters the first week of the season. It’s very difficult for any team to survive that, but the Cubs didn’t have the depth to do that. Even though we have confidence in some of the starters, we have a need to add more …. Injuries can never be an excuse for a bad season. You have to make sure that you have depth to avoid the inevitable and survive.”

-Jed Hoyer

Heading into the season I doubt many people would be surprised if the Chicago Cubs ended up trading Matt Garza for prospects at the deadline. The overwhelming feeling at the outset was that the Cubs were too far away to build a competing team while Garza was still effective. Garza is 28 which puts his window of being a good major league pitcher at 5 years, give or take. It’s fair to say that the Cubs felt they would be in competition outside of that window.

What is the reality, and what comes as a bit of a surprise, is that the Cubs are looking to extend Garza this year as it would appear they intend on keeping him. As the story indicates, Garza’s people wouldn’t be shocked if a trade happened, but the feeling is that he stays with the Cubs for quite a while.

The question this leaves me with is; Do the Cubs think they are closer than everyone else thinks they are? Do they believe they can build a contender within five years? Or is this just a ploy to drive up his trade value and the Cubs still feel that they are too far away to keep Garza. I can see both sides of it. Garza is eligible for free agency in 2013, it would be prudent of the Cubs to drive up his value for prospects by threatening to tie him up long term. However, the feeling I’m left with when I consider what it all means is that the Cubs think they aren’t too far away from competing.

Shark

I’ve been impressed with Samardzija since the spring. Since I wrote that article Shark had the expected uptick in BB/9, but he’s increased his K/9 rate and kept the other gains he made over the past few seasons.

What you’ll see there is a continued ability to suppress hits. Some of this may or may not be attributed to the defensive shifting the Cubs are employing, that’s another article for another time. Shark, it would seem, has turned himself into a solid #2-3 starter, depending on your definition of those labels. He’s done a remarkable job of keeping the ball on the ground and suppressing fly-balls. Some of these gains are unsustainable, but still bear watching over the long term:

The main knock on Samardzija have been his ability to miss bats, which looks like it was fixed last year, and his ability to command his pitches, which looks like it’s in the process of being adjusted this year. Remember when it was a surprise that Shark made the rotation this year? I don’t think that TheoCo was anticipating Samardzija’s progress this year.

Bryan LaHair

This is a major surprise. Bradley Woodrum over at Fangraphs (great site, go check them  out) posited that LaHair’s success might be sustainable. What’s important to keep in mind with LaHair is that while his BABIP has been crazy this year, it’s not insane to say that he can be an above average 1B or corner OF. If that seems like a massive step down from his current production, that’s because it is.

However, what it should be looked at is a massive step up for any projected production from a career minor leaguer who failed spectacularly in his previous auditions. He managed to keep improving past the age when such improvement is expected. He’s an anomaly and he’ll have a fairly long career crushing balls, but he’s not a 1.000+ OPS guy. I can see LaHair being the 25-30 HR guy with a decent average. He’s still striking out a lot, but his walk rate has also increased. It looks like LaHair got legitimately better, and when the Cubs can get rid of Soriano, they have the next LF on their squad. Rizzo will move LaHair off first. Speaking of which.

The Kids

Seriously, that’s stupid good. The BB-SO ratio is a little concerning, but the man is destroying AAA pitching. When he comes up there will be a lot of expectations placed on him. His swing looks different by all accounts, it’s shorter and more capable of handling MLB pitching, but there’s really only one way to test that out.

The rest of the known kids, Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, Junior Lake, Javy Baez, etc etc, are a mixed bag. We know that the Cubs lack any type of pitching at the minor league level, which is why the Cubs were entertaining the possibility of trading Garza in the first place. Josh Vitters started hot, but has cooled considerably. Brett Jackson’s defense is ready, but his bat is dragging a bit. Junior Lake is killing it, but his upside is limited and he’s still pretty far away. McNutt is having a good rebound year, but he’s the only pitcher of note in the minors that is doing anything.

Synopsis

The biggest factor in what the Cubs do with Garza will be the farm system. This year’s draft is important for the Cubs as they try to infuse a thin minor league system with some talent. There are some good pieces on the major league squad, the starting pitching has been a good surprise, but the Cubs biggest need is offense. I know the bullpen has been awful, but ‘pens are a funny thing to put together. You don’t build a good bullpen as much as you just fall into one. What’s more common is what the White Sox did in 2005, find live arms to stick in the pen and hope for the best. In that case, the best happened, despite running through 3 closers. The Cubs need a real CF, a better 2B, a 3B who can hit, and a younger catcher.

The fact that they are considering pulling Garza off the table suggests that they think they can acquire the pieces via other options. They can trade Dempster for a decent haul, and they will be looking at Latin America for a boost in player production. I think certain surprises this year have the Cubs front office moving up their timetables a bit, and that’s a good thing. The current squad is competitive, but not good enough to be a serious player. With shrewd management and smart maneuvering, they can be the real deal quicker than we all expected.

The Bag Skate…..Seau, the Cubs on the Farm, Rocky Horror Live Cast

by: Tony Leva
email: tonytrucker1969@gmail.com

Junior Seau, CTE and where this all may lead

On Monday, future NFL Hall of Fame linebacker Junior Seau put a gun to his chest and pulled the trigger, ending his own life at age 43. This is eerily similar to how former Bears defensive back Dave Duerson took his own life in February of 2011. Duerson left a note saying he intentionally left his brain intact so it could be studied for chronic traumatic encephalopathy, commonly known as CTE. It’s a degenerative brain disease that has been linked to violent contact sports like football and hockey. Repeated blows to the head in these, and other, sports are suspected to directly lead to CTE, which in turn causes the victim to suffer from memory loss, depression, confusion and aggressive behavior. Obviously, suicidal tendencies are also a symptom and unfortunately, sometimes the last symptom.

With the recent deaths of hockey players considered “enforcers”, Rick Rypien, a CTE victim who committed suicide, the possible suicide of Wade Belak, a depression sufferer, and the overdose of Derek Boogaard, also a depression sufferer and CTE victim, the hockey community has been seriously questioning the role of enforcers in the game as its becoming apparent the constant punches to the head may be directly linked to CTE. Considering the relative youth of these 3 players…Rypien was 27, Boogaard was 28 and Belak was 35…the crippling effects of CTE manifesting itself in such young men is truly frightening. If getting into fights on the ice is linked to CTE, what the hell is the game of football doing to others?

Virtually every play in football ends with a high-speed collision between at least two people…at least one of which is moving at full speed. From the first time a youngster puts on the pads and taps into that neanderthal gene that says “RRRAAAAAHHHHHRRRRRR!!!! HULK SMASH!!!!” they are subjecting themselves to the very real possibility of injuring their brain on a constant basis until the day they stop playing the game, be it one play later or when they retire from pro football. The damage done to a brain from a violent concussion can never be trusted to fully heal and the medical data supporting that conclusion gets bigger with every study done on the brain.

When do parents around the world finally say, “Not my child” and refuse to allow them to participate in sports where the risk for brain injury is so great? I’m not advocating one side over the other here, just asking that very important question….”When”? I’m certain that many parents out there won’t give a shit about anything that’s come to light and will keep enrolling their kids in these sports and will continue to scream encouragement from the stands when little Johnny plants a crushing hit on the son of another set of parents. They’ll yell “SHAKE IT OFF, RUB SOME DIRT ON IT AND GET BACK OUT THERE” even when it’s their kid on the sideline, woozy and nauseous from receiving a similar hit, even when their coaches insist they watch from the sideline until they’re cleared by a doctor to return to game action. I’m not sure where this is leading for the future of these sports, but I’m sure controversy will abound.

The Cubs and the Farm System

On a lighter note….Yeah, the Cubs suck hard this season and probably will in 2013 as well. While this is nothing new for us Cubs fans, what is new is there’s an actual plan to improve via the farm system. Let’s take a look at my top 5 prospects…

1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B The prize of the Adrian Gonzalez to Boston deal, the Cubs somehow heisted The Riz (That’s MINE and I expect royalties when he wins his first MVP and everyone calls him that) from the Padres for Andrew Cashner. Only 22 years old, he’s tearing it up at AAA to the tune of a .372/.422/.638 slash line and is only being held back by the issue of service time (free agency eligibility begins after 6 major league seasons and teams sometimes try to delay the eligibility clock by bringing young players up in June or July) and the fact that Bryan LaHair is playing well at the major league level. He’s a Hodgkin’s lymphoma survivor, so you know the kid is a fighter, too. I think he’s the most big league-ready of our youngsters and will give the Cubs a big run producer for a decade or so. ETA…June 2012

2. Brett Jackson, OF Jackson is a big, left-handed hitting OFer with superb defensive skills, is faster than rent in the ghetto and actually has the ability to draw a walk, something the Cubs haven’t stressed in the past. He’s prone to the strikeout, but so were plenty of other difference-makers with a similar tool set. I’m hoping he can be Jim Edmonds with more speed and less power. I don’t expect 40 homers from him, but 40 steals per season are in his sights. He’s excelled at every level he’s been at and at 23 is ready to hone his craft in Wrigley. There’s an available OF spot for him, but he’s in the same service time boat as The Riz. This kid is going to get every chance to be the dynamic leadoff hitter we have lusted after like we’ve lusted after a video of Kate Upton doing the Cat Daddy.

God help the rest of baseball if Jackson exceeds that level of awesomeness. ETA….June 2012

3. Javy Baez, 3B The last 1st round pick of the Jim Hendry reign of terror, he’s from the last MLB draft where overslotting and overpaying those players was possible. Drafted 9th overall in 2011, he’s 6′ 1″, 205ish, and still filling out since he’s only 19 years old. Scouts raved about how the ball jumps off his bat to all areas of the field. Defensively, he’s already a plus player and has the ability to play SS as well as 3B. Attitude may be an issue, though. He was recently scolded for admiring a home run and responded, “I can do whatever the fuck I want!” He’d better hit about 35 homers with a .300+ average in Wrigley if he’s going to be a cockbite. Hey, they can’t all be saints. ETA….2015

4. Matt Szczur, OF Pronounced “Caesar”, Szczur is a super athlete who played both baseball and football at Villanova before choosing baseball after being drafted in the 5th round of the 2010 draft. He probably would have chosen baseball anyway, but the Cubs gave him $100K to sign and another $500K to skip the NFL scouting combine. For $600K, I shudder to think what I’d do. He’s struggling a bit at High-A Daytona, but he was a project with a high ceiling when we drafted him and we can afford to let him learn his craft at his own pace. He’s athletic and was very durable in college while playing two sports. He’s gone from 5th round future to fast-track prospect making a name for himself in the organization. ETA….2014, maybe 2015

5. Trey McNutt, P The top pitching prospect in the system, McNutt, only 22, has two outstanding plus pitches…an overwhelming fastball and a big ol’ power curve that are almost major-league caliber as it is. Refining a 3rd pitch and sharpening his control a bit will be the keys for McNutt (yeah, you love that name) to make it as a starting pitcher in The Show. He is thought so highly of that the Cubs refused to include him in the Matt Garza trade and laughed in Boston’s collective faces when they wanted McNutt (don’t act like you’re not giggling) in compensation for Theo. Standing 6′ 4″, he’s an imposing figure on the mound and may even put a few more pounds on his 205 pound frame. We need more home-grown arms to compete, but McNutt is a good start. ETA…2013

Rocky Horror Live Cast Showing

Ok, off sports for a second. This past Friday night, I took my girls and two of their friends to the Arcada Theatre’s live cast showing of the Rocky Horror Picture Show. If you’ve never seen this, it’s a Bucket List thing, especially if you like rude, vulgar, offensive and colorfully dressed people who worship a movie that bombed like it was dropped on Nagasaki in 1945. These goofs (said lovingly, of course) dress up in costume and act along with the movie in it’s entirety. But that’s not the fun part!! The fun part is the audience callbacks. During the whole movie, the dialogue in the movie is “answered” by the in-the-know members of the audience. Here’s a decent example of this. Gotta listen kind of close, but you can make out the callbacks.

The enjoyment level for virgins (Oh yeah, first-timers are called “virgins” and are marked with a lipsticked “V” on each cheek and some offensive words or artwork on foreheads or bald heads. Then, the cast tries to offend them pre-show. The guy who tried to offend me had the tables turned on him. Silly cross-dresser!!) depends on how good the audience is. It’s much more fun to hear everything crisp and in-time (My name is Janet. “SLUT!!”) rather than a bunch of people who aren’t into the flick. It’s very audience participatory-dependent for fun, because the movie itself pretty much sucks, which is why it bombed years ago. After the show, the cast is more than happy to pose for pics and shoot the proverbial shit with you. This is me and my boy, Frank. I think it’s a boy. I didn’t have the sack to look under it’s panties…

Bring your kids if you don’t mind taking a chance on scarring them for life. How can you, really, when it’s just a bunch of grown-ups prancing around in drag?

 

Through Both Lenses: LaHair’s Surprising Season

by: Mauricio Rubio Jr.
email: mr@99sportsproblems.com
twitter: @MRubio52

I did a post recently on Shark that I kinda regretted for a few hours on Thursday before feeling better about my praise for Spellcheck with Tuesday’s game. In that post I mentioned some Cubs that you should be watching carefully on the Major League level. My number 5 guy was Bryan LaHair. Before we get to him however, let me just say that Anthony Rizzo is destroying AAA pitching at an alarming rate.

Even Galactus is calling dude the devourer of worlds.

Holy hell. It’s not even smoke and mirrors, these numbers are legit. His swing is shortened up and he’s not as busy with his hands, and none of that cost him any power. It’s scary good and he’s ready now. Oddly enough it’s not even really LaHair that is blocking him from the Major League level. The Cubs are probably going to wait for two things to happen before they call up Rizzo. 1. Late June and 2. Soriano is traded.

Soriano is preventing LaHair’s eventual move to LF. In my fan dream scenario LaHair plays left and Rizzo is at 1B. I don’t advocate sitting LaHair either because the Cubs might just have a solid player on their hands that might be able to help them when they are ready to compete.

Bryan LaHair is on a tear. It’s been impressive to watch him launch homers against the Cards and lash line drives against everyone else. It’s early and the numbers will drop, but I can safely say that I wasn’t expecting the .700+ slugging and an OPS of 1.190. He’s a guy that spent 6 years at AAA and was looked at as a Quad A player. All of this is valid, and he’s not going to sustain his .522 BABIP so his average will dip a bit, but there is some truth to his small sample size stats.

Let’s take a look at what he’s doing right:

There are a few interesting trends in there.  He’s striking out 33% of the time, which is a terrifying number. Dunn in ’11 struck out in 35% of his AB’s for comparison. This is a number that I would expect to fall around the 26-28% range, which is still high, but not completely awful. His walk rate is slightly up and has been since he joined the big club in extremely limited AB’s. Cub fans saw him make Motte work extremely hard on April 24 en route to coaxing a walk and eventually setting the table for Joe Mather’s unlikely game-winner. LaHair made Motte throw 12 pitches before the bearded closer finally succumbed and gave him a free pass. LaHair is currently seeing 4.13 pitches per plate appearance according to ESPN. This is again a jump from his 3.67 P/PA he posted in Seattle. It makes sense since he is currently striking out more and walking more than he ever has in his career.

What’s somewhat striking, however, is the authority with which he’s hitting the ball.

Since he’s been in a Cub uni his Linedrives have increased and he’s cut the grounders. He’s hitting the ball in the air a lot more and it’s showing everywhere. Some of those numbers are unsustainable, a 36% Homerun to Flyball rate is insane and it won’t hold, and his Infield Hit Rate will drop from 10% as well, he’s not that fast, but the good trends are that he is understanding what his tools are and is better utilizing his skill set.

LaHair is quick to the ball in his swing. His hands are held high over his left shoulder, and he gets good hip rotation on his swing. The plant foot stays solid when he steps and he drives the ball with authority. Suffice it to say, he has the skills to stay in the big leagues. I think it’s a fair assessment that he won’t be an all-star type player, but that he will go through stretches where he will be on fire, and down stretches where it seems like he’s a Quad-A player. LaHair is interesting, he strikes out a lot, walks a lot, and makes a lot of solid contact. It’ll be interesting to watch which gains he keeps and which ones slip as the season progresses. Don’t get too high on him now, he’s had a tremendous start, but don’t get too low on him when he slumps, he’s a solid major leaguer who will have a pretty solid career.

The Cubs are finding out a lot about their team. I think we’re finding out a lot about LaHair too. He’s not a .360 hitter, but he is a guy that can OPS around .800. I’ll take that.

In left field of course.

Through Both Lenses: Your Big Ass Cubs Depth Chart Pt. 2

This right here is pt. 2 of the Chicago Cubs names to watch for series I’m doing. OF is slightly less scary than the IF, the one true prospect does live out here in Brett Jackson. The names aren’t as raw and there are some legit Major League contributors in the bunch, but some of these guys should be gone by July.

-Mauricio Rubio Jr.
Follow me on twitter, @MRubio52 

Outfield

Right Field. David DeJesus – His wife is pretty hot, and she’s a big Cubs fan. As for David, he’s an ok option in Right. His slash line will look a lot like Fukudome’s but it’ll come without the extreme salary and latent racism that Cubs fans seemed to start. He’s a guy that doesn’t do anything a lot, if that makes any sense. He doesn’t walk a lot, he doesn’t strike out a lot either. He doesn’t drive in a lot of runs, nor does he score a lot of runs. He’s above average in most categories, but his slugging percentage is low for a corner outfielder. He’s a solid signing, cheap and mildly effective. He’s not a difference maker, but he is a decent stopgap.

Center Field. Marlon Byrd –  It will be a bit painful to see him go, as he should at some point this year. Byrd is a hustle player with tangible talent. He was at his peak value in 2010 and since then has slid into “decent player” territory, which is fine for a contender, but it really isn’t what the Cubs need at this point. Byrd has always been solid but unspectacular throughout his career. He can help out a team for a stretch playoff run, he does well against both righties and lefties and plays a decent Center, but he’s not going to be a massive difference maker over an extended period of time. The projected haul he brings back should reflect that.

Left Field. Alfonso Soriano – His contract is an albatross and his production has been slipping ever since he put on the uniform, but Alfonso Soriano does get his fair share of unfounded criticism. Let’s be clear about this, Sori was never the player that the Cubs paid for in 2007, he wasn’t a stolen base machine and he couldn’t play Center under any circumstances. Hendry wildly overpaid for Sori hoping that an eventual championship would relegate his later years with the team as a victory lap instead of a painful slow death. Soriano is still due 54 mil through 2013 and he’s not going to be getting any better. All that said he works on his craft and his teammates love him to death. It’s not his fault that Hendry overpaid, we would all take that money if it was offered to us. What was he supposed to do, decline? Soriano is not a sure bet to post a + .300 OBP this year, nor is he a sure thing to slug +.470, which is an awful combination. He is a bad fielder and he doesn’t run anymore, so of course people will label him as lazy. He isn’t. He’s overpaid, but that isn’t his fault. Soriano is likely to be on the team in one form or another for awhile. His dollars will be incredibly hard to trade, but that won’t stop the Cubs from shopping him around and potentially paying the lion’s share of his contract to play elsewhere.

1. Brett Jackson – There are legit reasons to be excited with Brett Jackson the prospect. He’s been climbing the Baseball America top prospects list for the past three years and enters the 2012 season as the #32 prospect in all of Baseball. This also makes him the best prospect in the Cubs system. Jackson has handled the relatively aggressive promotion pattern well. His ceiling is up for debate, none of his tools are eye popping, but he can be a Mike Cameron/Curtis Granderson type at the dish. His defense projects well, some see him being an eventual gold glove winner. Jackson does strike out a lot, but he has a decent walk rate which mitigates the k’s somewhat. He should get half a season of Major League pitching under his belt this year. Anything less will be seen as a disappointment.

2. Reed Johnson – Remember when Reed Johnson was gone for a year and it was fine because the Cubs weren’t going to compete this year anyway and he isn’t a difference maker? Johnson struggles to OPS over .800 most years, when his BABIP isn’t insanely high he struggles to hit over .300, and he is adored by Cubs fans for some reason. He has his uses, mainly against lefty pitching, but he’s perfectly tradeable, and he should be moved to a contender by the trade deadline for a decent haul. He’s a guy that can help a contending team, and the Cubs aren’t one yet.

3. Tony Campana – I want to root for this guy. He has legit speed as evidenced by his 24 for 26 stolen base performance last year. But he needs to play center in order for him to have any offensive value and that’s where Brett Jackson lives. He looks like a prototypical 4th outfielder, but Theo loves guys that can burn and play good OF defense, so he’s likely to stick around and get some playing time. He needs to find some gap power quick to stick in the lineup, but that’s not too likely.

4. Matthew Szczur – He’s behind the curve thanks to his football playing days at Villanova. He’s raw and it shows. He’s not major league ready and his ceiling is up for debate. I think his ceiling is a moving target, he’s obviously fast (80 on the traditional scouting scale for speed), but his future depends on what he learns at the lower levels. He has time on his side, so if he learns how to command the strike zone a bit he can be a more interesting prospect.

5. Dave Sappelt – He’s a meh. It looks like he’s destined to be a fourth outfielder, he never really wowed down on the farm. He has no outstanding skill, and most of his tools are merely average. He has some pop in his bat, but not enough to justify regular playing time. He has some speed but not enough to crack a lineup. He plays good defense which should be enough to carry him on most Major League rosters, but that’s about it.

Pitchers tomorrow

Through Both Lenses: Your Big Ass Cubs Depth Chart pt. 1.

Baseball is all romance, no fucking.

Robert Bykoski

This was a scary list to compile. For a few years I had read and heard about the bare cupboard that the Cubs farm system had become. Now, there are some gems here, but it lies mainly in the outfield. The Cubs have compiled a batch of CF prospects, but that’s just one position. Indeed the Cubs depth is pretty thin on the infield, and it’s going to be a growing need if Darwin Barney and Josh Vitters don’t pan out. This is more or less a list of players that you should pay attention to this year. There are some real young bucks in there, but their progress can yield more prospects or they could become future pieces of the hopeful Cubs championship puzzle. 

So without further adieu, he’s the fuckless romance.
-Mauricio Rubio Jr.
Follow me on Twitter, @MRubio52 

Catcher:

1. Geo Soto – Soto is once again coming off a season where his offensive production cratered. Soto was an older prospect when he finally broke through in 2008 and won Rookie of the year honors. In 2009 his offense fell flat and there were legitimate concerns about the bad weight he put on during the off season. Those questions were back again last year as he appeared to be heavier than he was in 2010. Soto was finally healthy but he was unable to properly square up the ball and his swing looked off. A .228/.310/.411 slash line sunk his value as he never possessed a cannon behind the plate. When he’s right, his stick is legit. There are two prospects that are legit threats to take serious playing time away from him, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him dealt this year if he re-establishes his value at the plate. Decent power stroke, good eye, and he doesn’t kill you at the plate, he could bring back a decent haul.

2. Welington Castillo – The Cubs are noticeably thin at catcher, their other prospects are fairly far away from the major league level, but Castillo is ready now. He’s a bit like Soto in that his offense completely bottomed out in the minors before having a renaissance with the stick. He has a strong arm, but in a more stacked organization he would start the year in the minors to work on refining his catching skills. In 2011 he hit .287/.359/.516 across three levels, and his career minor league OPS is .753. He projects to be a good defensive catcher that can hit at an above average rate for the position. The Cubs will need to figure out if Castillo can hit Major League pitching sooner rather than later.

3. Steve Clevenger – This is why the Cubs are thin at catcher, he’s 3rd on the organizational depth chart because he bats lefty. Clevenger did well at AA, but it was the second go-round for him, and repeating a level usually skews numbers. By all accounts his defense is far away from Major League ready, and he’s a year older than Castillo, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him travel north with the team in place of Castillo to allow Welington to get regular AB’s.

First Base

1. Bryan LaHair – If you’re going to be a Major League First Baseman you’ll have to slug. There are rare exceptions to this rule in the modern game, Daric Barton is one, but there is no doubt that First Base is a power production position. LaHair has obvious power, but there are several examples of players that slug in their youth down on the farm and can’t figure out Major League pitching. Matt LaPorta comes to mind. A 1.070 OPS is no joke, but consider that LaHair was 28, old for the level, and hasn’t really flashed that power consistently at the Major League level. He did well in an extremely limited sample size with the big boys last year, but he’ll have to do it consistently in 2012 to keep a hold of the starting job.

2. Anthony Rizzo – Jed Hoyer claims that he promoted Rizzo too early last year, and owns up to that mistake. I would caution him to not let a past transgression affect his decision making for the current team. Rizzo might be ready sooner than Hoyer thinks, When he was in the minors last year he absolutely destroyed minor league pitching. The problem there is the deep chasm separating the two parks he called home in 2011. PETCO is a cavernous stadium that kills flyballs. Tucson’s park is a bandbox by any measure. While his numbers are a bit skewed, the power is truly a plus-skill. He can be a legit 35+ homer guy if he can ever put it all together, and he’s the future of the Cubs at the corner.

3. Daniel Vogelbach – Vogelbach is rawer than raw, he’s a 19 year old that flashed decent power in extremely limited playing time in rookie ball, but he bears watching. Scouts are praising his ability to drive the ball to all parts of the park, he has plus-plus power and has started to creep into top 10 Cubs prospect lists. His conditioning a concern, he’s a big boy at 6’0 and 250 elbows, but he’s a name to pay attention to.

Second Base

1. Darwin Barney – He’s pretty much all effort. His offensive value is strictly tied into his batting average, which usually spells death for most prospects. Barney drew 22 walks in 570 PA’s last year, which is pretty awful. He has a high baseball IQ and he knows how to be aggressive on the base paths while still being smart, you know, kinda like the inverse Theriot. What he brings to the table is shortstop range and arm to second base. He’s a tremendous fielder and his glove will justify his fairly anemic bat for his career. If he’s hitting .280, he isn’t killing you. If he falls below that, it’s trouble. That usually spells UTL instead of 2B, but given the limited options at the keystone, he’s going to get another 500+ PA’s with the Cubs.

2. Jeff Baker – Baker struggles against right-handed hitters (.200/.229/.263) and his defense is only so-so. He’s a decent platoon backup at 2B, but it speaks more to the lack of depth the Cubs have there than any of the meager positives that Baker brings to the table. He’s 31 and clearly at the end of the road. He’s been in a decline phase for 3 years now and his willingness to play every position is a clear signal of that. His trade value is in the basement right now, so he’s likely to stick around on the club, but it’s looking like he’s limited to facing left-handers from here on in.

3. Zeke DeVoss – He’s pretty far away at this point, but I don’t feel like writing about Blake DeWitt in this space, so let’s talk about this kid. He doesn’t profile to have much power, but his main tool is a good eye at the plate and good speed. He’s going to have to show that patience again, the worry on DeVoss is that he’s too passive at the plate and that his lack of power will show itself as he progresses through the system. His ceiling looks like Luis Castillo, so make of that what you will.

Shortstop

1. Starlin Castro – Here are Castro’s statistical comps through his age 21 season. That guarantees nothing, but it’s usually a good thing when you’re putting up numbers similar to 4 Hall of Famers. Castro needs to work on his defense, he doesn’t set his feet when he throws and it makes him wild, but he started to cut his error rate last year, and that’s a positive sign. Tulowitzki and Jeter were making errors at a higher rate in the minors than Castro in the majors when they were 21, but that didn’t move them off the position. Castro should remain at short, his bat is maximized there and he has the tools to be a good defensive shortstop. Castro can hit the ball, he has incredible bat control. He can add power if he adds good weight, and he’s on the track to be a star. He doesn’t walk at a high rate, but his consistency with the stick more than makes up for that. For now at least.

2. Junior Lake – The man is solidly built and has climbed the prospect totem pole. He’s 21 and had a solid showing at High-A ball before struggling in Double-A Tennessee. Depending on how big he gets he can actually move to 3B and still project well enough with his bat. He’s very raw and has bad plate discipline (running theme with the Cubs ORG, it would seem), but his power is real.

3. Javier Baez – Baez is here over Bianchi because he’s toolsy and that makes people excited. Truth be told, he’s a long shot to develop into the player everyone wants him to be. Baez has concerns about his makeup. He’s immature, which is to be expected for a 19 year old, but he’s going to make people drool over his tools. He had a meh showing on the farm, but he has tremendous upside.

Third Base

1. Ian Stewart – He never really took advantage of Coors. He was a decent prospect and a startable 3B, but he won’t be replacing the sum of Aramis’ production. All that said, Ramirez did need to go and Stewart is just a stopgap en route to a better 3B. Hopefully the wait for the next one won’t be as long as the time gap between Santo and Ramirez. The Cubs hope that the fabled “change of scenery” will help him out, but I’m not seeing it.

2. Josh Vitters – It seems like he’s been in the organization forever, but he’s still only 22. Vitters has the habit of struggling after a promotion and adjusting fairly well the following year. That’s fine for now, especially since he was making solid contact in 2011. Youth will only be on his side for so long (ain’t that the brutal truth), and with Ian Stewart likely to struggle on the Major League level, the time for Vitters to show that he is the legit future at third is now.

3. Marquez Smith – He’s old and he’s hit his ceiling, so at this point he can contribute as a solid if unspectacular right-handed bat off the bench. He’s not a star anymore, and at this point he’s waiting on guys like Jeimer Candelario to pass him up in the organization. He’s a Bobby Scales type guy at this point, great minor leaguer, but he’s never going to develop into an everyday Major League Player.

Amateur Hour or Top Ten Drinking Mistakes…

By: Raul Parra

Email: rp@99sportsproblems.com

Twitter: ParraPalliative

NYE is right around the corner and I thought I would compile a list of what I consider the most common drinking mistakes that people make on NYE:

10) If you don’t bring anything don’t complain about the spread.

“This is something that extends far beyond the typical beer party spectrum, but it is especially irksome when someone complains about the beer and only brought some ice to the party. Listen people, it isn’t difficult, if you’re too poor/lazy/rude to bring anything to a party, don’t bitch about what’s there. I know I’ve been to plenty of parties that weren’t going to have my beer, but I handled it like a pro. Bring what you like, maybe you’ll convert some people, but more importantly, you’ll get to drink your stuff.”
-Moe

9) Don’t consume drinks you wouldn’t normally drink.

“I don’t do champagne. The first time I did was during college at a NYE party with some friends. I had it amongst other beverages and well, the result was a very hungover me dragging my friend to the CTA for a penny ride at 6 am because he wouldn’t go to sleep and demanded to go home. It’s just not a good idea to stray from what you’re used to on NYE. You’ll drink too much of it and then you’re screwed. Please stick to the rivers and the lakes that you’re used to.”
-Moe

8) Don’t post on Facebook how drunk you are/how much you’ve had to drink.

“I hate these updates when I see them and I hate them when I can see someone on their phone updating their Facebook. It’s pretty classless. The cardinal sin though is when that person is walking through the door and is on their smartphone, updating their shit. Nothing says class like a limp handshake and a mumbled ‘oh hey yeah sup.’ People like that need to be punched in the face.”
-Moe

7) Space your shots out/know your weakness.

“I can’t handle vodka. I’ve realized this after a few hopeless battles against the beast. I can’t beat it, neither can you. Alcohol to this date is undefeated. You’re not going to win. As valiant as the struggle may be, it’ll end with you puking up your food on a stairwell after yelling ‘I JUST WANNA GET LAID.’ Know what you can’t handle and stay away from it. Space the shots, it’s a marathon, not a sprint, get to the end, don’t knock out within an hour of showing up.”
-Moe

6) Stay away from Girly drinks

“If you hear the phrase, “You want a Red Headed Slut…”, don’t get too excited your host isn’t talking about her voluminous cousin.  She’s talking about a sugar infused poison concoction that will put you in a hangover coma the next day.  Lemme break it down for you, Sugar+booze=dehydration which in turn equals a wicked hardcore (Boston accent) hangover.  Avoid any drink with excessive mixers with sugar and you will be in post inebriation bliss.”  -Raul

5) Wine is not a shooter… seriously.

“I don’t have anything against wine. I rather like it sometimes. It’s an experience if you do it right. Get the right bottle, savor it, enjoy it, pair it with the right meal, put on the right music and you have yourself a night. It can also be something that gets you to your happy place. It is not, however, a shooter. Don’t make this mistake. I’ve known a few wino’s in my time, I may have dated a few, and this is such a classic bad move. You don’t need to consume a bunch of wine in a short amount of time. It’s not cool and it’s just not worth it.”
-Moe

4) Don’t piss off your bartender.

“Unless you go to shitty brah bars or just a shitty bar in general, your bartender knows what they are doing. They know you want your sparkly at midnight, don’t fret, just relax and it’ll get to you. Bars are usually well prepared for NYE. At a house party, don’t piss off the host, and do not disrespect the house. Where I’m from showing disrespect to a person’s house got your ass beat mercilessly. Just be respectful.”
-Moe

3) No drinking games.

“I like drinking beer, I hate having to work for it. Drinking games are fine in college, I guess. You’re a rookie at that time and anything alcohol related seems cool. But you should be a seasoned vet now, beer pong and beruit are for kids. It’s time to grow up and enjoy an adult beverage like, well, an adult (funny how that works). Stop hanging on to your college days, they’re over. Just drink the damn beer and make small talk. It’s not hard.”
-Moe

2) No drunk sexting your Ex or Current Crush.

“No wants to wake up and immediately check their Facebook Inbox or text inbox to see what kind of drunk Promethean like sex crazed freak they turned into after they black outed.  Turn your phone off and save your self the embarrassment. Especially if you are pursuing an honest relationship with said crush.. or you accidentally send the text to your boss.” – Raul

1) No DUIs

“Oldest rule in the book. The CTA offers penny rides on NYE now. There’s even a AAA towing service available in certain towns (1-800-222-4357, but check the availability first, don’t be a dunderhead and get all plastered and demand for a free tow. Shit’s expensive).”
-Moe